ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MAZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-
VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/23/08 1645Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1632Z  HANNA
.
LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS...NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...CONNECTICUT...
LOCATION...NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...
LOCATION...MARYLAND...VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
.
ATTN WFOS...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...
ATTN WFOS...LWX...RAH...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...SERFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN THREAT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN EVENT FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN ELONGATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY AND EXTENDING TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF WITH PROMINENT MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY, PER WV IMAGERY, WAS DIVING DOWN TOWARDS THE BASE OF THE OVERALL
TROF COMPLEX.  THIS HAS HELPED TO BACK THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING AND THIS PROCESS WILL ONLY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROF CONTINUES ITS DIGGING.  IN ADDITION,
FULL DISK WV IMAGERY SHOWS THAT RIDGING OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO
BUILD NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION WHICH WILL HELP
TO ENSURE SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT TO SYSTEM.  ALREADY IR IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT CLOUD PATTERN HAS EVOLVED INTO A QUASI-BAROCLINIC LEAF PATTERN
WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS.
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE PLUME ALREADY IN PLACE OVER DISCUSSION AREA PER
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MULTI-SATELLITE BLENDED PW ANALYSIS WILL
ONLY BE REINFORCED AS NW MOVING MOISTURE OFF THE SE COAST IS DRAWN INTO
THE SYSTEM.  NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ALSO SUGGESTS THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CONVECTION TO ENHANCE OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS.
.
ON THE SHORT TERM...LARGE SCALE ASCENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING, PER
CLOUD TOP COOLING, FROM NORTHERN VA INTO THE E HALF OF PA AND BELIEVE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION, AGREE WITH LATEST SWOMCD, THAT CONVECTION
SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE TIDE-WATER REGION AND LIFT NE THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4516 7181 4432 7108 4123 7259 3831 7466 3647 7631 3616
7803 3660 7838 3812 7783 4003 7700 4255 7554 4511 7319
.
NNNN