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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/23/08 1450Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1430Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...TRAINING CONVECTION FROM S NAVAJO/APACHE COUNTY  TO E PIMA COUNTY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS POSITIVELY
TILTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE N BAJA THROUGH DISCUSSION AREA
AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  JUST TO THE EAST OF THIS A DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE PLUME EVIDENT IN BOTH WV AND GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
EXTENDED THROUGH APPROXIMATELY THE E HALF OF AZ TOWARDS THE 4-CORNERS
AREA.  SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES WERE NOTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF RIDGE AXIS TO AID IN SYNOPTIC DESTABILIZATION.  THE FIRST
AND MOST WELL DEFINED APPEARED TO BE LIFTING THROUGH N UT/SE ID/SW WY
WHILE A SECOND IMPULSE WAS ALSO NOTED COMING INTO CNTRL NV.  GOES HIGH
DENSITY WIND ANALYSIS SHOWED A MODEST 50 KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK THAT
APPEARED TO BE TIED TO LEAD IMPULSE WHICH ALSO MAY BE HELPING TO FOCUS
ASCENT OVER REGION.
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ON THE STORM SCALE, IR IMAGERY AND EARLY MORNING VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED OVER TWO AREAS.  THE
FIRST BEING FROM NE GILA/S NAVAJO/S APACHE COUNTIES WHILE A SECOND AREA
WAS LOCATED OVER E PINAL/SW GRAHAM/NE PIMA COUNTIES.  IR AND VIS IMAGERY
DO SUGGEST THAT A SMALL SCALE CONVECTIVE MERGER AND NEARLY STATIONARY
OVERSHOOTING TOP OCCURRED OVER E GILA COUNTY IN THE LAST 30-60 MINUTES
OR SO TO LOCALLY ACCENTUATE RAINFALL TOTALS.  WOULD EXPECT THAT RAINFALL
RATES WERE LOCALLY IN THE 1.0-1.5"/HR RANGE WITH TOTALS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE.
HAVE NOTED THAT THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS WARMED WITH THIS COMPLEX IN THE LAST
30 MINUTES AND WOULD EXPECT A RESULTANT DECREASE IN AREAL AVERAGE RAIN
RATES ON THE SHORT TERM.  FURTHER TO THE SW, HAVE ALSO NOTED A WARMING
OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND DECREASE IN CG LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SO
BELIEVE RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED TO 0.25-0.50"/HR.  STILL THOUGH,
AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP
TO 2.0" HAVE OCCURRED OVER W GRAHAM COUNTY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3434 10978 3397 10916 3310 10989 3199 11046 3197 11088
3301 11093 3398 11042
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