ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/22/08 1145Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1132Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY...ILLINOIS...MISSOURI...
LOCATION...IOWA...KANSAS...NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...TRAINING CONVECTION FROM SW IA THROUGH SE MO PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS CONVECTION
HAS INTENSIFIED AND BEEN TRAINING ALONG AN AXIS FROM SW IA THROUGH
SE MO.  CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE FOCUSING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
EARLIER OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND HAS BEEN CONTINUOUSLY REGENERATING NEAR
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER SE IA WITH DOWNSTREAM
TRAINING INTO CNTRL MO.
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WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY DIFFLUENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AT THE BASE
OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROF OVER THE WESTERN LAKES.  IN ADDITION,
JET MAX ON THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS IS AIDING IN FOCUSING UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SPEED MAX.  ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR UPSTREAM REGENERATION IN LL CONVERGENCE MAX
OVER SW IA/SE NE, LLJ APPEARS AS THOUGH IT IS VEERING AND WEAKENING
WITH TIME SO BELIEVE THAT OVERALL TREND WILL BE FOR A WEAKENING SYSTEM
WITH TIME.  STILL THOUGH HIGHLY PRECIP EFFICIENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW FOR LOCAL RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2.0"/HR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
PRESENTLY WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF THIS MAGNITUDE TO BE IN THE VIC
OF DUAL OVERSHOOTING TOPS ON IR IMAGERY IN THE SE HOWARD/BOONE COUNTY
AREA AND ALSO POSSIBLY WITH THE RAPIDLY COOLING OVERSHOOTING TOP OVER
SE CHARITON/W RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS
OF 1-2" ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG THE ENTIRE AXIS
BUT BELIEVE HIGHEST THREAT FOR THESE TOTALS SHOULD BE ALONG AN AXIS FROM
SE CHARITON TOWARDS N OSAGE COUNTY.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4134 9566 4094 9401 4050 9290 3936 9093 3708 8837 3644
8881 3657 9005 3778 9177 3936 9468 4065 9630
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