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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/20/08 1406Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1345Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...NEW HAMPSHIRE...VERMONT...N AND C NEW YORK...
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ATTN WFOS...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...
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EVENT...CLOSE TO 3 STANDARD DEV ABOVE CLIMO PW MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARD
NE AND C NY AND NEW ENGLAND...SHORT WAVE FORCING W NY...
POTENT POTENTIAL HVY RAIN/FF THREAT...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ABOUT AS GOOD AS IT GETS AT ANYTIME
OF THE YEAR...ANTICEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS FROM RAINS OF THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS LIKELY TO BE DECIDING FACTOR OF EXTENSIVE NATURE OF FF AREA.
BUT IN ANY CASE...NEAR 3 STANDARD DEVS OF PW MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO
C TO NE AND E CENTRAL NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING AND HEALTHY
VORT PUSHING THRU W NY FOR SQUEEZING OUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE TAKING AIM
AT NE QUARTER OF NY INTO N HALF OF NEW ENGLAND.  AND ANOTHER VORT BEHIND
THAT FOR FURTHER INCREASE IN FF THREAT...ESPECIALLY IF MOISTURE FROM
CRISTOBAL CAN GET INVOLVED LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS STEADY MODERATE/OCCASIONAL HVY THAT WILL
PERSIST WITH W NY VORT APPROACHING AND STEADY BUT SLOWLY INCREASING
FF THREAT TODAY AND MAY SUDDENLY INCR FF THREAT WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ON SOUTHERN EDGE OF CLOUDS WHERE GOOD
DIFFERENTIAL ADVECTION AND SHARPING HEATING GRADIENT SET UP.  THAT NOT
THE CASE THIS MORNING SO FAR...ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINT GRADIENT BUT
SHOULD SHARPEN WITH TEMP GRADIENT AT LEAST LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...SEE SATELLITE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4545 7082 4333 6957 4256 7669 4299 7626
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