ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-CAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/19/08 2249Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11/12 2230Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...C AND W NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...EXT SE CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...SLOW MOVING CONVECTION IN NM...CONVECTIVE CELLS AZ...POSSIBLE
MCS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING N MEXICO...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTIVE COOL TOPS IN NM HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY SLOW MOVING WITH MODERATE RAIN IN A SHORT TIME AS PW MOISTURE NOT
QUITE AS GOOD MOST OF HERE COMPARED WITH S HALF OF AZ.  CURRENTLY CELLS
OF CONCERN CENTERED MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THRU SANTA FE COUNTY...
TORRANCE...SOCORRO...S CATRON/N GRANT COUNTY.  COLDEST TOPS WITH
S CATRON INTO N GRANT AND PROBABLY PRODUCING MOST RAIN...THEN SOCORRO
CELL AND THEN OTHERS IN N CENTRAL NM WHERE PW MOISTURE NEAR 1.0'-1.25".
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE INTO EVENING WITH BIGGEST PROBLEMS CLOSE TO
LOCAL ARROYOS.  OVER N MEXICO...NO SIGN OF AN ORGANIZED MCS YET...BUT A
DEFINITE SIGN OF CONTINUED MOIST SURGE INTO S CENTRAL AZ WITH MOISTURE
FROM FAUSTO.  SHARP PW GRADIENT CONTINUES BETWEEN DRY/LOW PWS JUST OFF
S CA COAST AND MOIST SURGE UP W MEXICO/GULF OF CA...SO THINK MCS WILL
DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE LATER THAN NORMAL.  KICKER FOR MCS COULD COME UP
VARIOUS VORT IN N/NW MEXICO OR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER S CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
INTO N OLD MEXICO.  S CENTRAL NM CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING BUT CAN BE
GIVING ONE INCH IN A 30 MINUTE TIME TO EXT S DONNA ANNA.  ALSO KEEPING
AN EYE ON CELLS/CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AZ
FOR POTENTIAL EXPANSION DEVELPMENT INTO S CENTRAL AZ.
IN AZ...ACTIVE CONVECTION MOVING IN EXT N GILA AND S NAVAJO COUNTY...
N COCHISE...NW GRAHAM AND S AND SW COCONINO INTO N YAVAPAI...BUT MOVEMENT
DESPITE HIGHER PWS HERE THAN GENERALLY NM HELP TO KEEP FF THREAT TO
A MINIMUM...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3608 11251 3564 10571 3454 10501 2882 10761 3233 11521
3449 11466
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