ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/17/08 0102Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0055Z      CW
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LOCATION...SW MINNESOTA...N NEBRASKA...SOUTH DAKOTA...SE NORTH DAKOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...MPX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...ANTIPATING HVY RAIN EVENT TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HVY RAIN EVENT
DEVELOPING OVER NEXT FEW HRS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD AND
LATER EXTENDING INTO EXT SE ND/SW MN.  SEVERAL FACTORS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THIS EVENT.  LATEST WV LOOP SHOWS A S/WV WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGHER
MID-LVL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVING ENE ACROSS S WY AND HEADING
FOR SW SD/NW NE.  THE ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NE LIKELY IS
BEING INFLUENCED BY THIS S/WV..CURRENT THINKING WITH THIS CLUSTER OF
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ESEWD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
POOL OF HIGHER SFC THETA-E VALUES ARE SEEN IN 00Z ANALYSIS AS WELL AS
DECREASING CIN AND INCREASING CAPE PER GOES SOUNDER.  WILL HAVE TO KEEP
CLOSE EYE ON THESE STORMS AS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE ARE STILL ATTEMPTING
TO DRY OUT FROM LAST NIGHTS VERY HVY RAINS.
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RECENT VIS IMAGERY (FROM 2325Z TO 0055Z) SHOWS NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS
DEVELOPING ACROSS S SD INVOF JONES/MELLETTE COUNTIES.  ANALYSIS OF SFC
WINDS SHOWS A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THIS SAME AREA (SOUTHERN SD)
AND FURTHER SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED SW TO NE ACROSS SD.
GOES SOUNDER PW LOOP INDICATES LLVLS ARE BEGINNING TO MOISTEN ACROSS
N NE/SD WITH BEST LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT COMING UP FROM THE S ACROSS
NE INTO SD.  STLT PW VALUES ARE FOUND TO BE NEAR 1.6" OVER CENTRAL SD/N
CENTRAL NE.  LLVL JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WHICH WILL ONLY ACT
TO INCREASE GOMEX MOISTURES INTO THE AREA.
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TO SUMMARIZE..VERY HVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS N NE/E SD AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO SW MN.  VERY MOIST LLVLS ALONG
WITH CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND APPROACHING
S/WV FROM THE W WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES BEHIND THIS EVENT.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4645 9826 4495 9449 4168 9917 4299 10273
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