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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/16/08 1230Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1215Z		DS
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LOCATION...S TEXAS PANHANDLE...SE NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...CLOUD TOPS TO -71C OVER NE EDDY COUNTY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR STLT IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CELLS
OVER NE EDDY/EXTREME SE CHAVES/CENTRAL LEA COUNTY MERGED TOGETHER OVER
NERN EDDY COUNTY IN THE PAST HR. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LVL FLOW OVER THE SW
PER WV/GOES STLT WINDS IS ALLOWING FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE REGION PULLING IT UP THROUGH AZ ACROSS SRN UT/EXTREME SW CO
AND BACK SEWD ACROSS NM. THE RICHER LOW LVL MOISTURE THOUGH ASSCD WITH THE
CELLS OVER SE NM STRETCHING INTO THE SRN PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE APPEARS
TO BE FROM A S/WV IMPULSE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF NM. GOES
SOUNDER INDICATES PW'S OF 1.2-1.3" INVOF THE STORMS BUT MAY BE AS HIGH
AS 1.5" AS THOSE VALUES ARE SEEN JUST TO THE NE IN TX. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THETA-E AXIS NOSING ACROSS SE NM INTO THE W CENTRAL PART OF THE TX
PANHANDLE..VERY NEAR TO THE SAME AREA WHERE SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW.
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JUST IN 12Z AMF RAOB SHOWS A PW VALUE OF 1.44" AND AN EL TO -60C SO THERE
IS A GOOD CHC THAT AN OVERSHOOTING TOP WAS PRESENT THOUGH JUST IN 1215Z
IR IMAGE SHOWS A REDUCTION IN AREA OF THE COLDEST TOPS AND HAS WARMED
TO -69C. FIRST VIS IMAGE OF THE DAY SHOWS SOME HIGHER CLOUD TOPS NR THE
COLDEST IR PIXELS NR THE EDDY/LEA BORDER NOW..CONFIRMED BY LIGHTNING
DATA. 1 HR STLT ESTIMATES ENDING 12Z SHOW AN AREA OF 1.2" AMOUNTS OVER NE
EDDY COUNTY BUT MAY BE SLIGHTLY UNDERDONE DUE TO POSSIBLE OVERSHOOTING
TOP/MERGERS THAT OCCURRED. CELLS HAVE SHOWN SOME BACKBUILDING RECENTLY
AND AT THE LEAST WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE IN THE WEAK FLOW. SEE WE ADDRESS
FOR ESTIMATE GRAPHIC IN ABOUT 5 MIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3330 10486 3323 10280 3230 10270 3230 10481
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