ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
KSZ000-NEZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/16/08 0649Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0632Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...N KANSAS...S CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...OAX...TOP...GID...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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EVENT...OUTFLOW HVY RAINS FROM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD
KANASAS BORDER...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SHEAR MOMENTUM IS TAKING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX'S OUTFLOW SOUTH THRU S CENTRAL NEBRASKA VIC OF PHELPS THRU
S FILLMORE COUNTY.  DEEP MOISTURE HAS POOLED ALONG OUTFLOW AND WOULD
EXPECT CONVECTION TO FOLLOW SOUTH TO AT LEAST FAR N KS COUNTIES FROM
PHILLIPS TO WASHINGTON.  WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF DRY AIR/LOWER PW
VALUES THAT HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO MO WILL HOLD IT GROUND
OR GET NUDGED SOUTH BY MOMENTUM OF OUTFLOW COMING SOUTH.  COUPLE OF
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS COULD OCCUR...THE MOST DEVASTATING WOULD BE THE SLOW
DOWN OF THE OUTFLOW WITH OUT ANY WEAKENING OF THE CELLS AS THE CONVECTIVE
BAND DRIFTS TO OR SOUTH OF THE KS-NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE NEXT 1-2HRS.
OTHER SCENARIOS ARE A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND AND LOWERING OF
RAIN RATES AND SUBSEQUENT FF POTENTIAL FAR S NEBRASKA INTO N KS AS DRY
AIR WEAKENS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW...LIKE WHAT
HAPPENED WITH OUTFLOW A FEW HRS AGO THAT REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NEBRASKA-MO-IA BORDER AREA.    WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT FOR THE
TIME BEING AREA FROM HARLAND TO JEFFERSON COUNTY THE MOST VULNERABLE TO
FF IN THE NEXT HR OR SO.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4102 9673 3989 9607 3958 9894 4080 9934
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