ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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NMZ000-AZZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/14/08 0712Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0700Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...S NEW MEXICO...SE ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...EPZ...TWC...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...DEFORMATION CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY WARMING IN S GRAHAM...
LIFTING NORTH THRU DONA ANA/LUNA COUNTY IN S NEW MEXICO...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MAJOR UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN CROSSING
W CENTRAL OLD MEXICO INTO CENTRAL BAJA PAST 18HRS.  AHEAD DEFORMATION
AND MOISTURE HELPING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LAST PAST SUNSET AND NORMAL
CONVECTIVE WEAKENING AND RAINFALL DECREASING DIURNAL PERIOD.
THINK TREND OF WARMING TOPS WITH S GRAHAM COUNTY CELL WILL CONTINUE AND
RAIN RATES WILL SLOWLY DECREASE...SO WOULD EXPECT FF THREAT THERE IN
SE AZ TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN NEXT HR OR SO.  S CENTRAL NM CONVECTION
FLATTENING OUT IN THE WAY COLD CLOUD TOPS STRETCH OUT AS THEY MOVE
NORTH ON EITHER SIDE OF THE DONA ANA-LUNA COUNTY BORDER IN NM.  HERE THE
ADDITION OF DIFFLUENCE IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER FAR SW TX
CAN KEEP ACTIVITY GOING ANOTHER FEW HRS AND COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
RAIN RATES OF UP TO 1.5"/HR...BUT MORE LIKELY GENERAL RAIN RATES OF 1"
PER 30-45 MINUTES MOSTLY WEST OF KELP.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3325 10986 3298 10879 3222 10680 3134 10696 3221 11059
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