ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NMZ000-AZZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/08 1918Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1900Z    KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...W NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...NEAR RECORD PRECIPITABLE WATER...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...
DEFORMATION...WEAK SHORT WAVE TRIGGERS FOR ISOLATED TO MODERATE HVY
RAIN CELLS...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES SOUNDER LIS PRETTY UNSTABLE
EVERYWHERE IN ARIZONA EXCEPT CENTERED IN PINAL COUNTY...BUT THAT WILL
BE CHANGING DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.  DEFORMATION AND ON THE
EDGE OD DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE MAIN HVY RAIN INITIATORS IN THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF AZ.  CENTRAL WILL BE CLOUD BOUNDARIES...WEAK DIFFLUENCE AND
WEAK DEFORMATION.  BUT BIGGEST FACTOR IS PWS AT NEAR RECORD LEVELS ACROSS
THE SOUTH HALF OF AZ INTO W NM THAT ARE AT LEAST 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE CLIMO NORM AT OVER 2 INCHES IN THE S CENTRAL TO
1.0" OR GREATER FAR NORTHERN AZ.    GRADIENT OF PW ABOUT AS STRONG
AS YOU GET IN THE KFLG AREA WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  SO FOCUSING IN ON THE OBVIOUS AREAS OF
S CENTRAL THRU SE INTO CENTRAL AZ AND CLOSEST TO CLOUD BOUNDARIES AND
NORTHERN AZ...SOUTHERN PORTION NEAR SHARP PW GRADIENT AND WEAK DEFORMATION
AND FAR NORTHERN WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY SIGNALS.  ALSO KEEPING AN
EYE ON SW/W CENTRAL AZ AND SE CA NEAR UPPER LEVEL SWIRL AND WHERE PW
MOISTURE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST BY OOZ...THIS AREA COULD BE A SLEEPER
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE 21-00Z TIME FRAME.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3601 11151 3383 10884 3108 10921 3162 11271 3338 11302
3465 11427
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