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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/10/08 0500Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0445Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TEXAS...NEW MEXICO...ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...CBRFC...
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EVENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SW
TO NE ORIENTED SHEAR AXIS FROM ROUGHLY SW AZ TO S KS REMAINS IN PLACE.
SEVERAL IMPULSES APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED AND LIFTING NE IN THE OVERALL
SHEAR AXIS, THE FIRST WAS LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WITH A SECOND JUST
SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AND THE LAST OVER THE N GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
IN ADDITION, THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS SUPPORTED A NEARLY STATIONARY JET
STREAK OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHICH IN TURN HAS RESULTED
IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS BEING NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA FOR NEARLY THE LAST 24 HOURS.
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TWO AREAS OF CONCERN RIGHT NOW WITH THE FIRST BEING OVER SE NM AND
EXTENDING NNE TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT SHIELD OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAS BEEN
TRAINING NNE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ON THE STORM SCALE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SATELLITE SIGNATURE CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE OVER E CHAVES
COUNTY WHERE A SMALL WEDGE TYPE FEATURE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE LAST HOUR AND WOULD ESTIMATE THAT BETWEEN 1.0-2.0" HAS FELL DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITHIN
THIS SHIELD GENERALLY RANGE RUNNING AROUND 1.0" WITH SOME ISOLATED
TOTALS GREATER THAN 3.0", ESPECIALLY OVER E EDDY COUNTY.  WOULD EXPECT
ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.0-2.0" OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
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THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH PERSISTENT RAIN SHIELD WITH
EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OVER GRANT/LUNA/SIERRA COUNTIES IN SW NM.
MOST SIGNIFICANT SIGNATURE WITHIN THIS AREA APPEARED TO BE VERY NEAR
OR PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF TCS.  HAVE NOTED NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
WITH LOCALIZED OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN THIS AREA OVER THE LAST HOUR.
REPORTS OUT OF TCS ALONG WITH MANUAL AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES
WOULD SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES WITHIN THIS AREA ARE LIKELY RUNNING AT LEAST
IN THE 1.0"/HR RANGE.  ALSO WOULD EXPECT ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1.0-2.0" IN THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
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LONGER TERM OUTLOOK...SUBSIDENCE WITH GULF COAST RIDGE APPEARS TO BE
PROGRESSING WESTWARD PER DRYING ON GOES-12 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  BELIEVE
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH HEAVY RAIN THREAT FURTHER WESTWARD BY TOMORROW.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3510 10345 3467 10220 3290 10290 3032 10457 3036 10590
3101 10694 3066 10977 3113 11053 3214 11063 3302 10968
3436 10596 3462 10503
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