ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/06/08 1425Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  1415Z  CK
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NOAA AMSU:1011Z  DMSP SSMI: 1148Z
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LOCATION...NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...NE/E MARYLAND...PENNSYLVANIA
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ATTN WFOS...PHI...LWX...
ATTN RFCS...MARFC...
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EVENT...BAND OF WARM TOP CNVTN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR AND VIS IMAGERY SHOW BAND OF WARM TOP
TSTMS/TCU/CU OVER SW NJ/N DE/NE AND E MD. INITIALLY..CNVTN WAS CONFINED TO
NJ..BUT TCU/CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MD/DE. VIS IMAGERY ANIMATION SHOWS LL
CIRC OVER DELAWARE BAY..WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC CONVERGENCE
ACRS S NJ/DE/N AND E MD/SE PA. BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER E ME AND PARTS OF
DE ALLOWING FOR SOLAR HEATING AND INCRG INSTABILITY.
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THE CONCERN GOING FORWARD IS THAT CNVTN WILL INCR/REINTENSIY OVER THE
DISCUSSION AREA..ESP THIS AFTN. SFC DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 70'S..AND GOES
SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS SUBTROPICAL PW PLUME HAS SURGED NWD TO THE DELMARVA
AND NJ COAST..WITH VALUES CLOSE TO 2" OFF THE COAST. THUS..COPIOUS
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR HVY RAIN BURSTS IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. LOOKING
AT RAOBS AT 500MB/700MB/850MB..AS WELL AS SFC WINDS.. INDICATES RELATIVELY
WEEK LOW TO MID LVL FLOW. THUS..SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS..AND
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FAIRLY HVY RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME SPOTS
IF THE CNVTN DOES INDEED INTENSIFY THIS AFTN.
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PA..ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE CNVTN IS..AND WILL BE..IN NJ/DE/MD..SOME
MAY SPREAD ACRS THE SE PA BORDER.
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SEE ANNOTATED GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN APPX 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4007 7475 3993 7383 3884 7462 3891 7605 3888 7607 3953
7653
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