ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NMZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/28/08 1955Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 AND 12 1945Z   KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...N NEW MEXICO...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE PLAINS GETTING FORCED WEST INTO N NM...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BETWEEN UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ONE CENTERED OVER SE NEW MEXICO.  IN BETWEEN
YOU HAVE HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES KS THRU S
MO/NE OK AND N ARKANSAS AND OUTFLOW AT LEAST FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING'S
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS ALREADY FORCED SOME DEEP MOISTURE SEEPAGE BACK
INTO NE NEW MEXICO. THOUGH DEEP MOISTURE STILL RATHER SHALLOW...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND MERGING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING LITTLE HAS SET UP THE
POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HVY RAIN CELLS THAT CAN GIVE
ONE INCH IN A RELATIVELY SHORT TIME FRAME OF 20-45 MINUTES AS HAS RECENTLY
HAPPENED FROM S CENTRAL COLFAX SWWD THRU WESTERN MORA COUNTY.
MERGER 19-1930Z THAT PRODUCED A CLOUD TOP TEMP OF -65C PROBABLY
PRODUCED THE MOST PRECIP IN A SHORT TIME AND LOCALIZED FF...ESPECIALLY
AS EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMP OF -53C FROM 12Z KABQ SOUNDING WAS BREACHED
PRETTY SUBSTANTIALLY.   CONCERN IS THAT HEAVY RAIN CELLS COULD GIVE ENOUGH
RAIN BOTH JUST NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE W MORA/EXT SE TAOS BORDER AREA
AND JUST TO THE EAST IN CENTRAL MORA COUNTY (WITH POSSIBLE OVERSHOOTING
-60C CLOUD TOP) AS DEEP MOISTURE TRIES TO COME IN ON EASTERN LOW LEVEL
FLOW.    SEE ANALYSIS GRAPHIC SHORTLY ON HOME PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3667 10511 3663 10424 3618 10431 3597 10551 3665 10580
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