ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/28/08 1245Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1215Z
.
LOCATION...SW MISSOURI...NW ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...SE KANSAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
.
EVENT...COMPLEX HVY RAIN SITUATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THREE MAIN MESOSCALE FEATURES HAVE
BEEN THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE HVY RAINS ACROSS KS/OK/MO/AR THESE PAST
FEW HRS.  CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF AN MCV POSITIONED OVER SW OK
HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING ATTM ACROSS
SW OK.   ALSO ONGOING WEAKENING OF THE OVERNIGHT MCS OVER S MO/N AR IS
SEEN WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPS ACROSS THIS AREA IN IR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER..AS MENTIONED IN 1055Z SPENES MESSAGE..AN ENHANCED REGION OF
LLVL CONVERGENCE HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE OUTFLOW OF THE WEAKENING MCS
AND THE MCV ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN OK AND NW AR.  AXIS OF MOD/HVY RAIN
APPEARS TO BE FALLING INVOF SNL/OK ENE NEAR ASG/AR AND BASED ON STLT
AND RADAR HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 2 HRS.
.
THE THIRD MESOSCALE FEATURE IS A CLUSTER OF TSTMS DIVING SEWD ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LVL WAVE SEEN STREAKING
SEWD INTO N KS PER WV IMAGERY.  ADDITIONALLY..A RATHER INTENSE VORT
SEEN SINKING SWED ACROSS SE ND/SW MN/NORTHEAST NE IS LIKELY PROVIDING
FURTHER LIFT.  OVER THE PAST 2 HRS CLOUD TOP TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO AROUND
-66C AND EXPANDING SIGNIFICANTLY COVERING MOST OF CENTRAL KS.
.
CURRENTLY THINKING IS THAT THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL BE ACROSS
SE KS/SW MO/NE AND E-CENT OK/NE AR FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS.  LLVL MOISTURE IS
FOUND TO BE ABOUT 150 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL IN THIS REGION WITH A PW MAX OF
2.0" LOCATED NEAR NE OK PER 12Z SFC ANALYSIS.  RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY
TO EXCEED 1.0"/HR WITH LOCALIZED RATES POSSIBLY REACHING 2.0"/HR AT TIMES.
.
PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS BELOW FOR STLT GRAPHIC COMING IN ABOUT 10 MINS...
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3919 9356 3537 9282 3467 9792 3859 9990
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-