ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/27/08 1024Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1015Z		DS
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LOCATION...MISSOURI...NE OKLAHOMA...SE KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...BECOMING CONCERNED FOR EARLY MORNING HVY RAIN EVENT
FROM SE KS ACROSS CENTRAL MO
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AS STRONGEST PART OF MCS OVER SE KS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SEWD INTO PARTS OF NE OK..THE ROTATION OF THE EMBEDDED
LINE WITHIN IT HAS NOW ORIENTED THOSE MOST INTENSE CELLS FROM SW-NE AND
ALIGNED THEM WITH THE 30-35 KT SWRLY LLJ SURGING NEWD INTO SW/CENTRAL
MO. GOES SOUNDER INDICATES PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.8" OVER NE OK/SE KS AND
LI'S OF -3 TO -5 ARE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF THE SEWD SINKING MCS INDICATING
THE INSTABILITY PRESENT. CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHOWN A WARMING TREND ON THE MCS
THOUGH ITS FAIRLY SLOW MOVEMENT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR HVY RAINFALL..BUT
GOOD NEWS IS CELLS ARE MOVING TWDS HIGHER FFG/LESS SATURATED AREAS IN
NE OK/SW MO. BAD NEWS IS THAT CELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO DVLP OVER THE NEXT
FEW HRS INTO THE EARLY MORNING FROM SW-NE ACROSS CENTRAL MO..AND THE
FARTHER CELLS EXPAND TO THE N/NE THE HIGHER THE CHC OF FF PROBLEMS DUE
TO SATURATED GROUND FROM PAST FEW NIGHTS OF HVY RAINS.
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RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS POINTS TO AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LVL
MOISTURE CNVG FROM NE OK TO NE MO AND INDICATES THAT THE THETA-E AXIS IS
ALIGNED OVER THIS SAME AREA NOSING INTO THE BACK END OF THE CNVTN OVER
W CENTRAL IL..LIKELY HAVING BEEN PULLED THAT FAR NEWD BY THE S/WV THAT
EXITED THE KS MCS EARLIER AND IS NOW MOVING ACROSS S IA. EXPERIMENTAL
MESOCALE WIND ALGORITHM SHOWS AN AREA OF UPPER LVL DVG CURRENTLY OVER
THE ERN EDGE OF THE MCS ALONG THE SE KS/SW MO BORDER AS WELL. RECENT RUC
MODEL RUN SEEMS TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE THOUGHTS AS FAR AS HAVING
A DEEP AXIS OF PW MOISTURE OVER THE STATE DURING THE MORNING HRS. RADAR
SHOWED ONE OR TWO CELLS ALREADY TRYING TO INITIATE OVER CENTRAL MO BUT
IT MAY TAKE SOME BUILDING TO THE NE FROM THE NEWD END OF THE MCS TO BRING
HVY RAINS INTO THE W CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL PARTS OF MO..AND THEN SINKING
SEWD LATER IN THE MORNING. PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS IN APPROX 10-15 MIN
FOR A GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OUTLINING THE THREAT AREA.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3995 9261 3884 9147 3672 9493 3781 9632
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