ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/23/08 0504Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: G12  0445Z  CK
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LOCATION...KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...NEW MCS FORMATION PSBL CENTRAL TO SE/E KS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CURRENTLY WATCHING TO AREAS OF INCRG
CNVTN..WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW/ADDITIONAL MCS FORMATION ACRS CENTRAL
TO SE KS OVERNIGHT. FIRST..LARGE SHIELD OF CIRRUS WITH EMBEDDED CNVTN
ENCOMPASSES AN AREA INCLUDING SW NEB THRU NW KS. ACTIVE COLD TOP TSTMS
ARE NW OF HLC AND MOVG SEWD. DOWNSTREAM..CLUSTER OF TSTMS HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING NW OF CNU. CURRENT G12 IR ANIMATION TREND SUGGESTS THAT THESE
TWO AREAS MAY COMBINE..AS OUTFLOW FM THE NWRN COMPLEX CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SEWD. A COUPLE OF OTHER FACTORS FAVOR THIS MCS FORMATION SCENARIO. ONE
IS A NOTED INCR IN PW'S OVER N CENTRAL TO SE KS PER GOES SOUNDER DPI
ANIMATION. ALSO..PROFILER DATA HAS SHOWN A MARKED INCR IN LLJ FEEDING
ACRS S KS DURING THE PAST FEW HRS. SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE PROFILER
DATA SUGGESTS SOME DECENT LL CONVERGENCE ACRS CENTRAL TO SE KS.
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WITH CLUSTER INCRG ACRS AREA NR AND NW OF CNU..IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME
CELL MERGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HRS..RESULTING IN HVY
DOWNPOURS IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME. IF DEVELOPMENT DOES INDEED INVOLVE
INTO MCS SOMEWHERE OVER E CENTRAL/E/SE KS..SOME SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TOTALS WOULD BE LIKELY AS WELL.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3989 9985 3779 9513 3725 9513 3886 10039 3956 10044
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