ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
OKZ000-KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/16/08 1620Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1610Z		DS
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LOCATION...N CENTRAL/NE OKLAHOMA...S CENTRAL/SE KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...
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EVENT...COLDER TOPS MOVING SWD THROUGH KS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LAST FEW HRS OF IR STLT SHOWED A COOLING
TREND WITH THE PREVIOUSLY WARM TOP CELLS OVER CENTRAL KS. VIS/RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWED THE COOLING TO BE DUE TO SEVERAL MERGERS THAT TOOK
PLACE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM RUSH/N PAWNEE COUNTIES TO BUTLER
COUNTY. WHILE REMNANTS OF A WARM TOP CLUSTER ARE SEEN CONTINUING E ALONG
THE KS/NE BORDER..AN OUTFLOW BNDRY IS SEEN IN VIS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE S
THROUGH W/CENTRAL KS AND IT IS ALONG THIS BNDRY THAT STRONGEST CELLS ARE
FOCUSED AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. HVY PRECIP SHOULD STAY ORIENTED IN A
WNW-ESE MANNER OVER S CENTRAL/SE KS/NE OK THROUGH 18Z BUT THE SWD SHIFT
OCCURRING WILL ALLOW CELLS TO ENTRAIN HIGHER PW'S PRESENT OVER CENTRAL
OK WHERE GOES SOUNDER/GPS VALUES INDICATE 1.75-1.95" PW VALUES. ALSO
AN AREA OF UPPER LVL DVG IS SHOWN TO EXIST BY RECENT GOES STLT WINDS
STRETCHING FROM S CENTRAL KS TO E CENTRAL OK ASSISTING IN SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. 850MB WINDS PER PROFILERS/VWPS HAVE BECOME BETTER ALIGNED ACROSS
N TX FOR SMOOTHER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND HAVE NOTICED 850 FLOW OVER N
OK WHICH SUDDENLY BECAME SERLY. THAT WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST AIR TO
SPREAD OUT ALONG THE OUTFLOW AND MAINTAIN THE SE-NW LOOK OF CURRENT CNVTN.
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INTO THE AFTN..EXTRAPOLATION OF CELL MOVEMENTS POINTS TO N CENTRAL/NE
OK AND ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER FOR BEST CHC OF HVY RAINS. CURRENT WARM
TOP NATURE OF CELLS AND INFLOW OF RICH MOISTURE HAS MADE FOR FAIRLY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING CELLS THAT IF OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR MORE THAN
AN HR OR TWO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AMOUNTS NEARING FFG..ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF SE KS/NE OK. AUTOMATED STLT ESTIMATES INDICATE RAIN RATES
UP TO 0.6-0.7"/HR BUT ARE LIKELY UNDERDONE DUE TO THE WARM TOP NATURE
OF STORMS AND ARE MORE LIKELY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1"/HR IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. SEE WEB ADDRESS FOR GRAPHIC IN ABOUT 10 MIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3841 10020 3808 9574 3583 9503 3600 9710
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