ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
ARZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/16/08 0355Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0345Z        CW
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LOCATION...W ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR MCS TO DEVELOP IN NEXT FEW HRS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS OK/S KS IS
BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS CLOUD TOPS WARM AND STORMS WEAKEN..HOWEVER
CLUSTER OF TSTMS LOCATED ALONG THE OK/AR/MO BORDER CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CLOUD TOP COOLING AND EXPANSION.  BIGGEST CONCERN IS ALONG THE NW EDGE
OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WHERE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE SEEN (-62C)
AND HAS SLOWED IN ITS SW PROGRESSION.  LATEST 2 IR IMAGES NOW SHOWING
NEW CLOUD TOP COOLING INVOF ROGERS/MAYES COUNTIES IN NE OK.  THIS MAY
BE FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT MAY VERY LIKELY CONNECT AND MERGE THE
CONVECTION OVER KS/OK BORDER AND THE CLUSTER ACROSS E OK AND NW AR. POOL
OF HIGHER SFC TDS (73F) IS SEEN OVER SE OK.  CONVECTION IS ALSO LOCATED
RIGHT ALONG THE SFC THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WITH GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES MAXING
OUT AROUND 1.7-1.8" ACROSS E OK.  LLVL JET IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN
THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SSW
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY BECOME
MORE ORGANIZED IN THE NEXT FEW HRS WITH THE MERGER OF THE TWO AREAS
OF CONVECTION MENTIONED EARLIER OVER A MORE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
AND LI VALUES NEAR -10 PER STLT ANALYSIS.  HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD SETUP
ACROSS E OK WITH POSSIBLE RAIN RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR.
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MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN FOR HVY RAINS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IS OVER
ROGERS/MAYES COUNTIES WHERE RECENT CLOUD TOP COOLING IS BEING OBSERVED.
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PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN 10 MINS FOR STLT GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3690 9483 3404 9382 3456 9956 3688 9973
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