ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/14/08 1647Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1640Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT...CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK...
LOCATION...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...
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ATTN WFOS...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CNVTN HAS BEGUN TO POP OVER PARTS OF THE
AREA..MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ATTM OVER SRN VT..CATSKLILL AND ALG
NY/PA BORDER. BUT INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL THIS
AFTN/EVE. 12Z RAOBS AND GOES/GPS DERIVED PW'S SHOW MUCH OF NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND IN PW'S ARND 2" WITH 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. SFC BASED AND
DEEP LOW LAYER MEAN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWS BEST CONVERGENCE OVER
ERN NY ATTM. SATELLITE DERIVED AND GFS FCST WINDS SHOW 80-100 KT JET
EXTENDING FROM UPPER PLAINS THRU THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THEN BENDING
SHARPLY TO THE N INTO WRN QUEBEC. INDIVIDUAL SPD MAXES WITHIN OVERALL
PATTERN PLACE ERN NY IN FAVORABLE RGN OF UPR DIVERGENCE.
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SATELLITE LOOP THIS MORNING INDICATES 2 LARGE UPR LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCS S
OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND OVER WRN ONTATIO. UPR RIDGE IN BTWN THE TWO IN GETTNG
PINCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH NO EASTWARD PROGRESS DUE TO DTRENGTH OF
LOW OVER ATLC. INFLECTION OVER ERN OH IN HI LEVEL CLDS ALG FNTL BOUNDARY
SUGGESTS WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN FLOW THAT MAY HELP TO ORGANIZE CNVTN
DOWNSTREAM AS IT LIFTS TO NE. WITH ALL THSE FACTORS IN PLACE..FEEL THAT
THERE IS A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND PSBL REPEAT ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF
ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO OVERALL SLOW PROGRESS OF SYSTEM. WILL
CONT TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS AFTN PROGRESSES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4577 7228 4104 7283 4151 7683 4555 7610
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