ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
ARZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/14/08 0150Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0140Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...ARKANSAS...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...MEG...LZK...TSA...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 0Z UA
ANALYSIS SHOWS SEVERAL FACTORS THAT SUGGEST A THREAT FOR A POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND INTO THE NIGHT.  CURRENTLY,
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED BOUNDARY LIES FROM CNTRL OK THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF AR.  OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE SEEN THE TENDENCY
FOR INCREASING CONVECTION FROM THE VIC OF GOK EAST TOWARDS THE VIC
OF RUE.  MOST IMPRESSIVE STORM SCALE FEATURE ALONG THIS AXIS APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING NEAR S NEWTON/N
JOHNSON COUNTY.  ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES IN THIS AREA HAVE BEEN
STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST 30 MINUTES TO BETWEEN 1.25-1.50"/HR.
BOUNDARY ORIENTATION TO UL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TRAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA.
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0Z UA ANALYSIS WAS FURTHER HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
A WELL DEFINED 1000-500MB THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA.
IN ADDITION, AN 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WAS APPROXIMATELY LOCATED OVER
CNTRL OK.  UPSTREAM ORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS TO ONGOING CONVECTION
WOULD SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR RIDGE
AXIS AND THEN TRAIN DOWNSTREAM OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL OK AND N AR.
AT THIS POINT AN EARLY GUESS FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN AXIS WOULD BE
ROUGHLY FROM OKM TO THE FLP/RUE AREA.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR POTENTIAL
THREAT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3638 9171 3555 9098 3501 9154 3473 9282 3485 9524 3537
9744 3603 9721 3622 9628 3621 9514 3626 9328
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