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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/13/08 1853Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1815Z		DS
NOAA AMSU: 1411Z/1716Z
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LOCATION...PUERTO RICO...
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ATTN WFOS...SJU...
ATTN RFCS...
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EVENT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HVY RAINS TDY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VERY RECENT 1716Z AMSU PASS SHOWED THE
MOST CURRENT LOCATION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS SURGING WWD ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND NOW HAS PR ALMOST DIRECTLY IN ITS CENTER. HOWEVER THERE
IS A LITTLE BIT OF LOW LVL DRYNESS SEEN IN BETWEEN TWO CRESTS WITHIN
THE WAVE OF MOISTURE AND THAT DRIER AREA IS CURRENTLY CROSSING PR FROM
SE-NW. THUS FAR THAT HAS BEEN THE MAJOR FACTOR IN INHIBITING DEEP CNVTN
FROM FORMING..THOUGH SOME CELLS HAVE INITIATED OVER W PR..ESPECIALLY
NW..WHERE THE BACK EDGE OF THE FIRST CREST IS JUST NOW EXITING THE
PICTURE. IR/VIS IMAGERY INDICATES WHAT IS LIKELY THE BACK EDGE OF THE
INITIAL CREST OF DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM SW OF THE ISLAND WHERE CNVTN
IS SEEN TO THE NWRN CORNER OF PR. SECOND WAVE/CREST OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE ARRIVING SHORTLY AS VIS/IR INDICATE IT TO BE ALONG AN SW-NE
AXIS OF DVLPG CNVTN OVER ST. CROIX. WV HAD SHOWN DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER PR
THIS MORNING WHICH LIKELY ALSO HELPED TO INHIBIT ANY STORM DVLPMT ALONG
WITH THE TIME OF DAY AS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE CROSSED PR THIS
MORNING. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING..ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE TO CENTRAL PART OF
THE ISLAND WHERE CLOUDS HAVE YET TO DVLP WILL ALLOW FOR CNVTN TO INITIATE
THIS AFTRN AND TAP THE APPROACHING DEEP MOISTURE. PW VALUES RANGE FROM 2"
WITH THE FRNT EDGE OF THE APPROACHING WAVE TO 2.25" STILL SEEN HANGING
BACK JUST W OF THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA/MARTINIQUE/ST. LUCIA. WITH THIS
DEEP MOISTURE..HVY RAINS ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTRN. SEE
WEB ADDRESS BELOW FOR GRAPHIC IN ABOUT 5-10 MIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 1879 6554 1764 6531 1759 6741 1869 6747
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