ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
WIZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/11/08 2206Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2155Z      CW
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LOCATION...NE MISSOURI...SE MINNESOTA...IOWA...E KANSAS...E NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...
ATTN WFOS...GID...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO VERY HVY RAIN EVENT THIS EVENING.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST VIS STLT IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE
CELLS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO INITIATE ALONG THE SW TO SSE ORIENTED
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KS NWD THRU NE/AND SE SD.  MOST OF THE
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONCENTRATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW IA/SW MN.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HRS EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO
FIRE ACROSS E NE/N-CENTRAL KS AS MID-LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
W PROVIDING ENHANCED MID-LVL LIFT ALONG WITH GOOD UPPER-LVL DIFFLUENCE
WITH THE EXIT REGION OF SW-NE ORIENTED JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LVL LOW ACROSS MT.  GOES SOUNDER LI VALUES SHOW -8 TO -12
VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF E NE/W IA/CENTRAL KS SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THIS EVENING.
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HIGHEST LLVL MOISTURE IS FOUND POOLED OVER NE KS AND E NE/W IA
WITH 1.5-1.6" FROM 21Z SFC ANAYSIS AND 1.6-1.8" FROM GOES SOUNDER.
A PERSISTENT 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LLVL JET HAS ALLOWED FOR GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND IS FORECASTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING TO AROUND 50-60
KTS BASED ON LATEST RUC MODEL.
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AXIS OF HVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE ORIENTED SW TO NE ACROSS NE KS/SE
NE/W-CENTRAL IA/S MN THIS EVENING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.0" LIKELY
WITHIN THIS AREA.  WITH ALL THE HVY RAIN FALL FROM THIS PAST WEEK AND
FROM THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER THIS MORNING
FF GUIDANCE VALUES ARE VERY LOW.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THIS HVY
RAIN EVENT CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING...
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PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN ABOUT 10-15 MINS FOR STLT GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4407 9636 4310 9112 3826 9501 3831 9881
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