ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/09/08 2209Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 2145Z		DS
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LOCATION...NW MISSOURI...IOWA...NE KANSAS...SE NEBRASKA...
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ATTN WFOS...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...CNVTN FORMING ALONG POST-FRNTL SFC CNVG BNDRY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CLUSTER OF CU/TOWERING
CU AND CELLS STARTING TO INITIATE OVER EXTREME SE NE/NE KS INTO EXTREME
NW MO AND SW IA. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES A NARROW SFC AREA OF
SFC MOISTURE CNVG EXISTS FROM NE KS/SE NE TO NE IA WHICH THE CELLS OVER
BENTON/IOWA/POWESHIEK/MAHASKA/MARION COUNTIES HAVE ALSO FORMED ALONG. NOT
A LOT OF MOISTURE POST-FRNTL TO WORK WITH..ONLY 0.7” TO AT MOST 1.1”
PW VALUES PRESENT PER GOES SOUNDER/GPS VALUES. LI'S OF -3 TO -4 ARE
PRESENT AS WELL. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE DONE POORLY WITH THE FORMATION OF
CELLS OVER THIS AREA AND IT APPEARS TO REASON FOR STORM INITIATION IS
A SMALL S/WV IMPULSE THAT WAS PULLED NWD OUT OF THE OK CNVTN EARLIER
AND PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LVL JET STREAK OVER W IA/SE MN. EXPECT CELLS
WILL EB MOSTLY WARM TOP AS THE ONE OVER IA IS ONLY AT -40C SO FAR AND
WILL MOVE FROM SW-NE WHILE THE AREA OF SFC CNVG PROPAGATES EWD. A FEW
OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE BEEN SEEN IN VIS ON THE STORM OVER E IA AND IT
ALONG WITH FORMING STORMS ARE LIKELY CAPABLE OF 0.4-0.7”/HR RAINFALL
RATES BUT LIKELY ANY ADDTL RAINS ON TOP OF ALREADY VERY SATURATED GROUND
WILL CAUSE PROBLEMS. SEE WEB ADDRESS IN ABUT 5-10 MIN FOR GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4246 9150 4170 9090 3915 9614 3970 9696 4162 9337
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