ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/08/08 2119Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 2045Z		DS
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LOCATION...CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...
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ATTN WFOS...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...OHRFC...
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EVENT...CONTINUED THREAT OF TRAINING CELLS ALONG NY/PA BORDER INTO N NJ
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS..TOWERING CU AND SOME ALREADY INITIATED
CELLS EXIST ALONG A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AXIS ALONG THE NY/PA LINE FROM
WARREN COUNTY EWD TO N BRADFORD COUNTY/PA AND S TIOGA COUNTY/NY. VIS SHOWS
THESE STORMS MOVING IN A W-E MANNER ALONG THE STATE BORDER BEFORE THE
BNDRY ALONG WHICH THEY ARE TRAVELING DROPS SEWD THROUGH THE POCONOS OF
NE PA INTO NW NJ AND THEN ENEWD OVER PARTS OF EXTREME SRN NY/CT. THOUGH
MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE W IS NOT QUITE AS RICH AS THAT THE TO E..PW
VALUES OF 1.7-1.8 COMPARED TO VALUES OF 1.9-2.2" IN NE PA/N NJ..BUT STILL
EASILY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HVY RAINFALL. ALSO THERE IS MORE LIKELINESS
OF TRAINING ALONG THE PA/NY BORDER THAN TO THE E/SE AS THE BNDRY THERE
IS RELATIVELY STNRY FOR NOW COMPARED TO THE E PART OF THE LINE DIPPING
SEWD AND FFG INCREASES ACROSS NE PA/SE NY/N NJ. BEST SFC MOISTURE CNVG
EXISTS IN TWO PLACES PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS..ONE OVER NYC AREA/WRN LONG
ISLAND/NE NJ AND THE OTHER OVER N CENTRAL PA INVOF TIOGA/POTTER/BRADFORD
COUNTIES. BOTH AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME TRAINING OF CELLS OVER THEM
AND ALSO BELIEVE THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE FOR NEW INITIATION OF CELLS
ALONG A KAVP TO JUST N OF KMSQ LINE IN NE PA/N NJ..GIVEN VIS IMAGERY AND
GPS VALUE LI'S OF -7. MAX RAINFALL RATES PER AUTOMATED STLT ESTIMATES HAVE
BEEN BETWEEN 1-1.5"/HR AND EXPECT THESE RATES TO CONTINUE. FFG IS VERY
HIGH FOR NE PA AND N NJ THOUGH SO MOST CONCERN MAY BE FOR ALONG PA/NY LINE
BUT UNSURE HOW LONG THOSE CELLS WILL PERSIST ONCE DAYTIME HEATING LESSENS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4230 7493 4062 7211 3979 7298 4181 7960 4226 7921
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