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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/28/08 0330Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0315Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CURRENT SYSTEM OVER N CNTRL TX HAS
EVOLVED INTO AN MCS WITH BOTH A FORWARD PROPAGATING COMPONENT ALONG WITH
A PORTION THAT REMAINS NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY.  THE FORWARD PROPAGATING
COMPONENT FROM JACK COUNTY TO N MITCHELL COUNTY CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
OFF TO THE SE AT BETWEEN 20-30 KTS.  OVER THE LAST 15-30 MINUTES THERE
DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE WAS SOME CONVECTIVE INTERACTION AS A CELL
OVER N NOLAN COUNTY HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED.  MOST RECENT IR IMAGE
SHOWS A VERY PRONOUNCED OVERSHOOTING TOP TO AROUND -80C WITH THIS CELL.
ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING AT A STEADY CLIP, THE CURRENT
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS WELL BELOW -66C ELT OBSERVED ON MAF SOUNDING
WHICH SUGGESTS CELL IS PENETRATING WELL ABOVE TROP.  THUS WOULD THINK
THAT RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY EXCEEDING 2.0"/HR WITH THIS CELL.
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FOR THE QUASI-STATIONARY PORTION OF THE MCS, CONVECTIVE HAS BEEN
CONTINUING TO TRY AND REGENERATE OVER A REGION ABOUT 50 MILES SW OF LBB.
THIS AREA IS IN FAVORABLE REGION FOR CONVECTIVE REGENERATION AS 0Z 85H
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS JUST UPSTREAM.
ALSO LATEST OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A WELL DEFINED SURFACE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM JUST UPSTREAM OF ONGOING CONVECTION.
BEST SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THIS PORTION OF THE MCS APPEARED TO BE OVER
BORDEN COUNTY WHERE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT UPWARDS OF 3.0-4.0"
OF RAIN HAS FELL OVER THE PAST 3HRS.  LATEST IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME
GRADUAL CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THIS VICINITY OVER THE PAST 30 MINUTES SO
WOULD EXPECT THAT RAINFALL RATES MAY LIKELY DECREASE ON THE SHORT TERM.
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QUICK LOOK AT 0315Z IR IMAGE SHOWS THAT OVERSHOOTING TOP OVER NOLAN COUNTY
HAS WARMED AND BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED BUT WOULD STILL EXPECT 1.0-2.0"/HR
RAINFALL RATES FOR THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITH
CELL IN THE VIC OF BORDEN COUNTY CONTINUES TO WARM SO WOULD ALSO EXPECT
A DECREASE IN RAINFALL RATES TO CONTINUE THERE.  HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
SUGGESTION OF CONTINUED UPWIND CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT AND WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE TO SEE IF THAT TRAINS OVER AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN DOWNSTREAM.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3395 9833 3341 9786 3261 9835 3212 9954 3183 10082
3216 10209 3315 10289 3346 10268 3352 10210 3330 10122
3304 10022 3356 9907
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