ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/27/08 0640Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0632Z  JS
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LOCATION...SW MISSOURI/W CENT ARKANSAS/OKLAHOMA/SE KANSAS
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...3 AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL (SE KS-NE OK-SW MO/W CENT
OK/W CENT AR) STILL BEING MONITORED.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SINCE LAST SPENES MESSAGE THE 3 SEPARATE
BATCHES STILL EXIST ALTHOUGH THE ACTIVITY OVER W CENT OK HAS NEARLY
LINKED UP WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST TO ITS NORTHEAST. IR IMAGERY THROUGH
0615Z SHOWS VERY GOOD CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT WITH W CENT OK ACTIVITY AS IT
PROGRESSES SLOWLY BUT STEADILY EASTWARD. DESPITE ITS MOVEMENT AUTOMATED
SATELLITE BASED ESTIMATES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN IN THE 2"-3" RANGE IN A 2
HOUR OR SO PERIOD ALONG ITS PATH. FOR THE ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM NE OK
INTO SE KS/SW MO SIMILAR SATELLITE BASED ESTIMATES (2"-3") HAVE OCCURRED
IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH RECENT TRENDS INDICATING SOME CLOUD TOP
WARMING. EVEN WITH THE CLOUD TOP WARMING EXPECT SOME POTENTIAL IMPACT FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LOWER FFG VALUES ACROSS SE KS/SW
MO. ALSO, A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTATION OF THE LINE OVER NE OK
COULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER TOTALS THERE DUE TO MORE CELL TRAINING. RECENT
PROFILER DATA HAS INDICATED SOME VEERING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH
MAY FIRE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE LINES MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
OK. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S HAVE POOLED ACROSS S CENT OK WITH
SE SFC INFLOW ADVECTING THESE INTO CENT AND E CENT OK.
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FINALLY, A RATHER SMALL BUT PRONOUNCED BATCH OF CONVECTION STILL PERSISTS
ACROSS W CENT AR WITH AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES INCREASING TO THE
2.5"-3.0" RANGE FOR GARLAND COUNTY. ACTIVITY IS VERY SLOWLY SINKING
SOUTHWARD INTO HOT SPRING COUNTY WITH MORE CELLS BACK TO THE WEST AROUND
MONTGOMERY/PIKE COUNTIES. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS CONVECTION
BELIEVE IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN IT AND
THE CONVECTION OVER OK. IF THAT EVENTUALLY DOES OCCUR IT POTENTIALLY
COULD RESULT IN A LOCALIZED BUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT OVER W CENT
AR ASSUMING CELLS CURRENTLY OVER W CENT AR DO NOT WEAKEN PRIOR TO THIS
OCCURRING. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THE ADDRESS BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3794 9467 3494 9217 3410 9328 3528 9926
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