ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
AZZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/23/08 0617Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 0600Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION...CENTRAL ARIZONA...
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ATTN WFOS...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...
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EVENT...SHORT WAVE COMING IN FROM S CA ACTING ON MODERATE MOISTURE AZ
FOR LOCAL HVY RAIN WITH WARM TOP BAROCLINIC LEAF...
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...BIG PICTURE HAD UPPER LOW CIRCULATION
RIGHT CLOSE TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD NEAR THE CA-AZ-NV BORDER AREA.
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ON BACK EDGE OF TROUGH EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR
CA/BAJA COASTS HELPING TO GENERATE INCREASED MODERATE MOISTURE THAT HAS
BEEN THROWN INTO AZ PAST 18HRS.  PARTIALLY ORGANIZED BAROCLINIC LEAF
SIGNATIRE ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM W PIMA THRU S COCONINO/S NAVAJO COUNTY
AND FRACTURED PART OF IT ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION PROBABLY RESULTING IN
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES PRIMARILY FROM W PIMA/SE YUMA TO GILA AND
S NAVAJO/S COCONINO COUNTY.  TUS EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMP AT 00Z WAS
-20C...SO ANY CLOUD TOPS COOLER THAN -20C WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING FF-LIKE RAINS.  AND WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS AS COOL AS -37C IN
W PIMA AND -35C FROM MARICOPA TO S COCONINO... THESE AREAS ARE PRIMED FOR
LOCAL HVY RAINS AND FF POTENTIAL.  AND AM NOT SEEING ANYTHING TO END THIS
THREAT FOPR AWHILE AS HIGH LEVEL WINDS MAXING OUT AT 100-140KTS CONTINUE
ON WEST SIDE OF LOW ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE OREGON TO CA AND WILL HELP
RETROGRADE LOW NEXT 12-18HRS.    SEE SATELLITE GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS ON
HOME PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW...
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3552 11175 3442 11014 3172 11252 3228 11369
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