ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/22/08 2222Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2215Z  RUMINSKI
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LOCATION...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...MEG...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...HEAVY RAIN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MISSISSIPPI
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CNVTN HAS BECOME MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
PAST FEW HRS ACRS THE DISCUSSION RGN. MAIN DRIVERS ARE VORT CENTER NOW
OVER N CENTRAL LA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MOIST ADVECTION BEST DEPICTED
IN GOES SOUNDER AND GPS DERIVED PW ANIMATIONS OVER PAST 12 HRS SHOWING
SURGE IN 2" PW'S INTO SRN/CENTRAL LA AND SW MS. ADL FOCUSING MECHANISM
GOING FORWARD WILL BE OLD FNTL BOUNDARY ACRS CENTRAL/NRN MS WHICH IS
WELL DEPICTED IN GOES VIS IMAGERY.
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OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN ARE PARISHES IN E CENTRAL LA –
CATAHOULA/CONCORDIA/FRANKLIN/TENSAS – WHERE TORRENTIAL RAIN IS OCRG WITH
VERY CD CLD TOPS (-75C) AND MERGING LN SEGMENTS. MAX ESTD RAINFALL WITH
THIS CLUSTER IS 1.5" TO 1.75" PER HLF HR. EVEN THOUGH THIS AREA IS MVG
STEADILY A QUICK 2.5" TO 3" IS PSBL. TAIL OF CNVTV LN FROM WEST FELICIAN
TO LAFAYETTE PARISHES DOES NOT HAVE AS CD CLD TOPS BUT HAS SHOWN ONLY
SLOW MVMNT PAST 2 HRS WITH TRAINING CELLS AND SOME MERGERS FOR ENHANCED
RAINFALL TOTALS. GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE AVBL RAINFALL TOTS ALG THIS LN
COULD QUICKLY REACH 3-4" IN A NARROW CORRIDOR.
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AREA OF MOST CONCERN IN MS EXTENDS FROM EXTRM SW PORTION INTO THE CENTRAL
PORTION WHERE CNVTN HAS ALRDY FORMED IN ADVANCE OF VORT IN MOIST ADVECTION
RGN. SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AS VORT TRACKS OVER SAME AREA.
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PLEASE SEE WEB PAGE BLO FOR GRAPHIC DEPICTION SHORTLY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3438 9153 3298 8847 2941 9047 3248 9352
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