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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/16/08 1539Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1532Z GG
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LOCATION...N FLORIDA...S GEORGIA...EXT SE ALABAMA...
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ATTN WFOS...JAX...TAE...MOB...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...
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EVENT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...TRAINING
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR/VIS ACROSS THE CONCERNED AREA SHOWS
A SW TO NE LINE OF OVERSHOOTING AND/OR HARD TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE N GOM TOWARD KPNS.  OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN WARMING WITH
SOME INDIVIDUAL BREAKS WHERE CIRRUS IS STARTING TO ERODE BUT STILL
SHOW A QUICK EASTWARD PUSH AS THE LINE BECOMES MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT.
THAT LINE IS VERY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A SHORT BURST OF VERY HIGH RAINFALL
CAPABLE OF URBAN OR STREET FLOODING CONCERNS BUT IT IS THE E-W LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS N OKALOOSA TO JACKSON COUNTIES IN FL ALONG WITH VERY
WEAK CAPPING ENVIRONMENT ACROSS S GA/N FL THAT IS LEADING TO FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
TOTALS CAPABLE OF LONGER DURATION TRAINING WITH A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY
OF FF EVEN THOUGH FFG IS VERY HIGH.  NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN BOILING
FOR SOME TIME ALONG 2 BOUNDARIES...BUT RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS MORE TOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSED REGION.  PWS OF 2.1-2.2" PER GOES
SOUNDER AND VERY GOOD MST CONVERGENCE FROM S AND SWLY INFLOW AND TOPS
TO -50C AND COOLING SUGGEST RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5"/HR CURRENTLY WITH
INCREASING RATES DEVELOPING WITH CONTINUED COOLING TO -60/-65C (AS
SEEN OVER KMGR AND KTLH ATTM) UP TO 2-3"/HR.  CELL MOTION IS JUST A BIT
NORTH OF DUE EAST AND UNFORTUNATELY THE ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT REGION FROM
SE GA TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SQUALL LINE IS ABOUT 250 MILES... LEADING
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LONG PERIODS OF TRAINING OF ISOLATED VERY HVY TO
MODERATE RAINFALL.  CURRENTLY BEST GUESS FOR WORST TRAINING IS ALONG
THE NORTHERN E-W BOUNDARY FROM OKALOOSA COUNTY FL TO ATKINSON/WARE COUNTY.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3156 8276 2999 8259 2914 8724 3117 8727
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