ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/15/08 1338Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1315Z    CW
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LOCATION...NE FLORIDA...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...SE LOUISIANA...
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ATTN WFOS...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...
ATTN RFCS...SERFC...LMRFC...
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EVENT...HVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN WITH MCS SHOWING SIGNS
OF WEAKENING
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...ARIEL EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED
WITH MCS IS BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE AS CLOUD TOPS ARE SHOWING A WARMING
TREND OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS IN IR STLT IMAGERY.  UNFORTUNATELY HVY RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS MS/AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS..BUT A
POSITIVE IN ALL OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EWD ACROSS TX SHOULD HELP TO
MOVE THE SYSTEM ALONG SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN ITS SPEED WAS OVERNIGHT HELPING
TO CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE RAINFALL TOTALS.  TWO AREAS OF HVY RAIN OF
CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS ONE ACROSS N MS AND A SECOND FOR SE LA INTO S MS.
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COLDEST CLOUD TOPS OF -71C ARE SEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF HVY RAIN
MOVING EWD ACROSS S LA AND INTO S MS.  WITH VIS IMAGERY NOW AVAILABLE
A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS ARE SEEN INVOF OF LIVINGSTON PARISH NI SE
LA. AUTO STLT ESTIMATES INDICATED LARGE AREA OF 1.2-1.5" HAS FALLEN
FROM 1145-1245Z.  CURRENT THINKING IS THIS AREA OF HVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TO THE EAST INTO S MS/W AND SW AL OVER THE NEXT FEW
HRS WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-3" PARTICULARLY ACROSS E
AND SE MS/W CENT AND S MS/EXTREME W PANHANDLE OF FL.
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REGARDING THE HVY RAINS ACROSS N MS INVOF GRENADA COUNTY EWD TO MONROE
COUNTY..CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED FROM -68C LAST HR TO -60C IN LATEST
IMAGERY (1315Z). AUTO ESTIMATES ARE HANDLING THIS AREA RATHER POORLY
BUT MANUAL STLT ESTIMATES SUGGEST AROUND 1.0" HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST HR.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ON THEIR CURRENT WARMING
TREND WITH HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ACROSS SOUTHERN
MS/AL AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1.0" OR LESS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS N MS/AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.

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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3475 8936 3442 8624 2975 8745 2986 9156
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