ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/14/08 1300Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1245Z     CW
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LOCATION...N LOUISIANA...S ARKANSAS...NE TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...HVY RAINS STILL IMINANT EVEN AS CLOUD-TOP TEMPS WARM
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AN AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -68C ARE ALL
THAT REMAINS OF THE FIRST MCS AND IS POSITIONED CURRENTLY OVER WEBSTER
AND BOSSIER PARISHES..WITH HEAVIEST RAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH INVOF OF RED
RIVER AND BIENVILLE PARISHES BASED ON RADAR PRODUCING 1-2" OF RAIN IN
THE LAST 1-2 HRS.  A SLIGHT LET-UP IN RAIN RATES IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 30-60 MINS FOR THOSE COUNTIES JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF WEBSTER
AND BOSSIER PARISHES..HOWEVER THE SECOND MCS IS STILL APPROACHING FROM
THE SW FROM EASTERN TX WHICH IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2" OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN THE NEXT FEW HRS.
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THERE HAS BEEN SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS SECOND MCS AS
AREA OF -63C CLOUD TOPS TEMPS HAVE COLLAPSED RATHER DRAMATICALLY IN THE
LAST 30 MINS IN IR IMAGERY..UNFORTUNATELY RATES BETWEEN 1.5-2.5/HR FROM
STLT ESTIMATES ARE STILL OCCURRING INVOF OF ITS CORE.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE
SECOND MCS CORE..UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE PER STLT WIND FIELD HAS INCREASED
IN THE LAST HR SUGGESTING THAT UVVS HAVE INCREASED OVER N LA/S AR AND MAY
ACT TO ENHANCE THE MCS AS IT MOVES NE OR POTENTIALLY RESULT IN INCREASED
RAIN RATES ACROSS ITS NORTHERN EXTENT WHILE SLIGHTLY LOWER RATES MAY
OCCUR ALONG ITS SOUTHERN EDGE.
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OVERALL..HVY RAIN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS ACROSS EXT NE TX/ N
LA/S AR WITH RATES AS HIGH AS 1.5-2.0" VERY LIKELY..PARTICULLARY ALONG
THE LA/AR BORDER.
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PLEASE SEE BELOW WEB ADDRESS FOR STLT GRAPHIC IN ABOUT 10 MINS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3386 9224 3204 9157 3064 9632 3272 9763
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