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TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/14/08 0810Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0802Z  JS
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LOCATION...WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ENHANCEMENT WITH BATCHES OF CELLS OVER
W CENT TO SW TX.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR LOOP THROUGH 0802Z IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH RAPID CLOUD TOP COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH 2 CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
MOVING TO THE ENE ACROSS W CENT TO SW TX. DESPITE BEING RIGHT BEHIND
ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED MCS (CURRENTLY OVER NE TX) THE ACTIVITY
HAS BLOSSOMED INTO 2 BATCHES OF INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH POTENTIALLY COULD
EVOLVE INTO SINGLE LARGER MCS. THIS SITUATION IS INDICATIVE OF JUST HOW
MUCH FORCING EXISTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL FLOW TO THE EAST OF
WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW SEEN MOVING ESE ACROSS SE AZ/SW NM IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. DATA ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SOUTHERN MOST BATCH LIKELY RESIDES IN A
MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH GREATER ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES AS HIGH AS
2"/HR CURRENTLY FROM E KINNEY TO W BANDERA COUNTY. AUTOMATED SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH ISOLATED SPOTS JUST OVER 2" FOR
KINNEY/NW UVALDE/S REAL COUNTIES. FARTHER TO THE NORTH ESTIMATED RATES
ARE AROUND 1.5"/HR FOR ACTIVITY CENTERED AROUND JUNCTION TX. HOWEVER,
AS THIS BATCH HEADS A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST IT WILL SHORTLY ENCOUNTER
BETTER MOISTURE AND POTENTIALLY EVEN HIGHER RAINFALL RATES. AT THE PRESENT
TIME THIS BATCH IS ALSO FOLLOWING ROUGHLY ALONG SAME PATH EARLIER MCS
TOOK SO HYDRO PROBLEMS COULD COME UP QUICKER THAN WHAT OTHERWISE WOULD
BE THE CASE. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3139 9857 2893 9851 2895 10084 3134 10091
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