ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/14/08 0645Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0632Z  JS
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LOCATION...N LOUISIANA/SW TO S CENT ARKANSAS/E CENT TO NE TEXAS
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MCS NOW MOVING MORE TO THE ENE OR NE OVER E CENT TX IS POISED TO
MERGE WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD FROM NE TX INTO SW AR.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE THOUGHT RIGHT NOW IS SIMILAR TO
EARLIER SPENES MESSAGE AS IR LOOP THROUGH 0632Z SHOWS MCS OVER E CENT
TX BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH INCREASING LINE OF CELLS OUT AHEAD EXTENDING
ALL THE WAY INTO SW AR. AS MCV CIRCULATION SEEN ON RADAR COMPOSITE LOOP
MOVES ENE OR NE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS EXPECT MERGING CELLS
AND POSSIBLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF RAIN RATES AS COMPLEX GROWS
AND SPREADS FROM NE TX INTO SW AND S CENT AR. GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS
AND EXPECTED TRACK BELIEVE AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL ALSO ENTER NW LA
WHICH CERTAINLY NEEDS TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AFTER THE DELUGE EARLIER
THIS EVENING. CURRENT AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTALS FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO ARE INDICATING GENERALLY 1-2" ALONG PATH OF MCS
MOVING ACROSS E CENT TX ALTHOUGH EXPECT LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT
AS SOME OF THE CELLS JUST AHEAD OF THE MCS WERE COVERED BY CIRRUS ANVIL
LIMITING THE SATELLITE'S ABILITY TO PICK UP ON THEM. AUTOMATED ESTIMATES
WERE OVER 2" FARTHER TO THE NE ESPECIALLY AROUND FRANKLIN/TITUS/MORRIS
COUNTIES. AS MERGER OCCURS BETWEEN MCV AND THIS LINE EXTENDING INTO SW
AR IN HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT BELIEVE TOTALS COULD EASILY BE IN THE
2-3" RANGE IN A 1-2 HOUR PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS BETWEEN
3-4". SEE ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN
APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3495 9318 3334 9222 3084 9662 3221 9735
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