ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/14/08 0410Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0402Z  JS
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LOCATION...N LOUISIANA/S ARKANSAS/CENT TO E TEXAS/SE OKLAHOMA
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MONITORING 2 SEPARATE COMPLEXES (CENT TX AND N LA) AND TRENDS
CONCERNING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN THEM.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...
FOR N LA...INTENSE RAINFALL PRODUCING COMPLEX APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING
ITS STRENGTH FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS N LA WITH COLDEST CLOUD TOPS
WITHIN THE CORE AND BEST REFLECTIVITIES ON RADAR LOOP BECOMING A BIT
MORE WEST-EAST ELONGATED. THIS ENSURES VERY HEAVY RAINS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT HALF HOUR TO CONTINUE FOR BIENVILLE PARISH AND LONGER THAN
THAT FOR JACKSON PARISH WHERE THE RAINS HAVE MORE RECENTLY BEGUN. DID
NOTE THE EARLIER TREMENDOUS RAINFALL RATES OF 3"/HR TO OVER 4"/HR IN
THE SHREVEPORT AREA AND WITH SYSTEM NOT SHOWING IMMEDIATE WEAKENING,
CERTAINLY THE THREAT EXISTS FOR RATES AT LEAST TO 3"/HR IF NOT LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THE AFORMENTIONED PARISHES. DO EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX AS IT PUSHES FARTHER TO
THE EAST AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR EXISTS CLOSER TO THE LA-MS BORDER.
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FOR CENT TX...MCS WHICH FORMED OVER CENT TX HAS MOVED RATHER QUICKLY
TO THE EAST OR ENE TEMPORARILY LIMITING THE FLOODING POTENTIAL
THERE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD WITH GOOD
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT PRESENT AND S-SHAPE SIGNATURE ON THE BACK END OF ACTIVITY
INDICATING A WELL DEFINED ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE. ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
COMPLEX IS MOVING INTO THE BEST MOISTURE WITH SFC TDS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S ACROSS E TX AND PW VALUES FROM GOES SOUNDER DATA/00Z RAOBS CLOSE
TO 2".
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OUTLOOK FOR ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA...WHILE SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY FOCUSED ON N LA, BELIEVE THE THREAT EXISTS LATER
TONIGHT FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF TX MCS ALLOWING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CELL TRAINING ACROSS A PORTION OF E AND NE TX
INTO S AR AND POTENTIALLY EXTREME SE OK. CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
OUT AHEAD OF TX MCS ACROSS NE TX AND ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR MORE
CELL FORMATION WITH BEST MOISTURE RESIDING IN THIS GENERAL AREA AND GOOD
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW (30-40KTS) PER PROFILER NETWORK/REGIONAL VWP
DATA. THE RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW SPREADING TO THE WEST AND NW FROM N LA
COMPLEX COULD ALSO SERVE AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY ON WHICH CONVECTION MAY
FOCUS. AN ANNOTATED GRAPHIC OF SATELLITE FEATURES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE
ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3443 9359 3213 9240 2975 9893 3164 9879
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