ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/13/08 1955Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1945Z KUSSELSON
NOAA AMSU:1634Z DMSP SSMI:1156Z
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LOCATION...W TENNESSEE...N MISSISSIPPI...ARKANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...MOISTURE IN PLACE AND EXPANDING/ORGANIZING...FORCING FEATURES
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE....
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY PROBLEMS IN THE
SHORT TERM...THIS MESSAGE WILL PRIMARILY PROVIDE SATELLITE ANALYSIS TO
SUPPLEMENT HPC DISCUSSION FOR THE NEXT 24HR AND FF POTENTIAL THEN...
CURRENT PW MOISTURE PLUME FROM SATELLITE...GPS AND 12Z RADIOSONDE
WAS ALREADY WELL DEFINED/ORGANIZED FROM E TX TO IT NOSE IN ARKANSAS.
THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE LITTLE IN THE NEXT 12-18HRS FROM IT
CURRENT POSITION AS UPPER LOW/TROUGH STILL DIGGING SOUTH THRU AZ AND
RIDGE ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE OHIO...TN VALLEYS.  FORCING
ALREADY ESTABLISHED IN THE WAY OF A SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS FROM C BAJA
THRU FAR SW TX NOSING INTO ARKANSAS WITH SATELLITE MAX WINDS OF 100KTS.
SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVES ALREADY HAVE MOVED ACROSS AR/MS TO MOISTEN UP
THE ATMOSPHERE WITH ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE PUSHING ACROSS
NE TX TO ADD TO MOSTURE AND INSTABILITY.  POLAR JET STILL DIGGING DOWN
WEST SIDE OF VERY DEEP TROUGH/LOW IN AZ AND UNTIL THAT FEATURE AND
BRAOCLINIC ZONE WELL TO THE WEST BEGINS TO APPROACH...WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR THE REAL ORGANIZATION THAT WILL REALLY HEIGHTEN FF POTENTIAL.
ALREADY PW MOISTURE CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES SE TX AS PER LATEST GPS DATA.
THIS IS ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVS ABOVE THE 1953-2000 CLIMO NORMAL AND WITH
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN PLACE AND HEADING FOR THE NE TX...AR/TN AREA
OVER THE NEXT 18HRS...CONCERN WILL ONLY INCREASINGLY HEIGHTEN TONIGHT AS
FORCING AND LIFT GET BETTER WITH APPROACH OF WX SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST.
SEE GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS ON HOME PAGE AT ADDRESS BELOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3570 9384 3533 8961 3370 9038 3334 9409 3347 9438
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