ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/13/08 0202Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0145Z    CW
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LOCATION...S CENTRAL TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR HVY RAINS THIS EVENING
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A RATHER MOISTURE-ENRICHED ENVIRONMENT
IS PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER MUCH OF S TX (PARTICULARLY DEEP S TX) AS A
LLVL MOISTURE PLUME HAS PUSHED ITS WAY NWRD.  GOES STLT AND GPS PW VALUES
INDICATE MAX PWS AROUND 1.7-2.0" EXTENDING INTO DEEP S TX AND WITH A 25KT
925-850MB SOUTHERLY JET PUSHING THIS HIGH MOISTURE NWD..ALL THAT SEEMS
TO BE NEEDED IS A LIFTING MECHANISM TO DEVELOP SOME EVENING CONVECTION.
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UPPER-LVL WIND FIELD ANALYZED AT 0015 BASED OFF WV IMAGERY INDICATES A MAX
AREA OF DIVERGENCE OVER BREWSTER/TERRELL/VAL VERDE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING EWD ACROSS SW TX AT THIS HR.
AREA OF DIVERGENCE SEEMS TO MATCH WELL WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
UPPER LVL JET STREAK STRETCHING ACROSS SE NM INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TX.
IF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS UPPER-LVL SUPPORT
AND MOVE INTO S CENTRAL TX THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION OF
THESE STORMS.  BRIEF PERIODS OF HVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS S CENTRAL
TX WITHIN THE NEXT 3-6 HRS AND SOME CELLS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
1.0-2.0"/HR RAIN RATES AS TPWS ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(ABOUT 150 PERCENT FROM NORMAL).
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PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS BELOW IN ABOUT 10 MINS FOR STLT GRAPHIC.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3154 9881 3026 9682 2857 10011 3079 10177
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