ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/11/08 2348Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2340Z    CW
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LOCATION...DELAWARE...MARYLAND...NE VIRGINIA...
LOCATION...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
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ATTN WFOS...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...
ATTN RFCS...MARFC...
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EVENT...AXIS OF HVY RAIN APPROACHING
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HVY RAINS ARE BEING REPORTED ASSOCIATED
WITH MAIN CLOUD BAND POSITIONED OVER E VA/S MD.  REPORTS OF 0.88" AND
1.21" IN THE LAST HR FELL AT OFP AND RIC RESPECTFULLY IN E CENTRAL VA.
COLDEST CLOUD-TOP TEMPS ARE RELATIVELY WARM..AROUND -52C WITH SPOTTY
POCKETS OF -55C PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND
NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER INVOF CPK.  GREATEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BASED
ON 23Z DATA IS LOCATED ALONG E VA/E NC ALONG NOSE OF MAX PW'S BETWEEN
1.3-1.4" SEEN COLLOCATED WITH THE BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS.
LAST FEW VIS IMAGES FROM G12 STLT SHOWED MULTIPLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS
AND CELL REGENERATION/BACK-BUILDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS
CLOUD BAND.
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CURRENTLY THINKING IS AS THE UPPER LVL LOW..THAT IS ROTATING AND SLOWLY
MOVING EWD ACROSS S OH..WILL TILT THE MAIN CLOUD BAND MORE ESE-WNW
ORIENTED ACROSS MD/DE/NE VA PLACING THE HEAVIEST RAINS OVER THESE AREAS
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.  UPPER LVL WIND FIELD INDICATES
VERY IMPRESSIVE UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE LOCATED OVER NE VA/N MD AT THIS
TIME..WITH MAX DIVERGENCE AROUND 100 UNITS.
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WITH BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE NEARLY
COLLOCATED ALONG WITH RAIN RATES OVER 1.0"/HR EXPECTING HVY RAINS WITH
RATES BETWEEN 1.0-1.5"/HR TO OCCUR NE VA/MD/DE.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HRS AS THE AXIS OF HVY RAIN BECOMES
MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED LIKELY RESULTING 2-3" ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4003 7626 3764 7467 3701 7603 3947 7744
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