ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-NMZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/07/08 0430Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0415Z GG
.
LOCATION...NW TEXAS...EXT E/SE NEW MEXICO...
.
ATTN WFOS...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
ATTN RFCS...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...MCS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...GOES WV LOOP SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW JUST
SOUTH OF SE AZ LINE IN OLD MEXICO WITH DISTINCT SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING N TO
NNE ACROSS 4 CORNERS INTO NE CO.  WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN EJECTING OUT OF FAR WEST TX AND LEADING
TO GOOD VORT ADVECTION FOR GOOD HEIGHT FALLS AND BROAD UVV ACROSS THE
DISCUSSED AREA.  STRONG 50-55KT SELY LLJ HAS BEEN LEADING TO VERY HIGH
MST FLUX AND MST CONVERGENCE ACROSS SE NM FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
AS SEEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A -60 TO -65C TOPPED MCS ACROSS LUB
CWA...WITH ISOLATED -70C TOPS ENHANCING ACROSS TERRY TO LUBBOCK COUNTIES
ATTM. THIS MCS HAS NOT COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT HAS EXPANDED WITH THE TOPS
LOOKING LIKE A CELL SPLIT...BUT IT IS THE EXTREME 40-60 UNIT DIVERGENCE
FROM GOES STLT WIND FIELDS THAT IS LEADING TO THIS EXPANSION...FOR GOOD
EVACUATION FOR CONTINUED MAINTENANCE OF THE MCS AS A WHOLE. THOUGH PWS
ARE 1.0-1.2"...IT IS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MST FLUX...THAT WILL LEAD
TO EXTREME RATES IN EXCESS OF 1.5-2"/HR WITH STRONGEST CORES WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM... AND
FF CONCERNS IF SW TO NE TRAINING IS TO CONTINUE.

AS THE SHORTWAVE ENHANCES AND WESTERLY FLOW (AS ALREADY SEEN FROM VWP
NETWORK ACROSS C NM) SURGES ACROSS S NM AND W TX... CELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS CHAVES/EDDY AND S LEA COUNTY AND EXPAND THE MCS
INTO MORE OF A COMMA HEAD APPEARANCE WITH A DEFORMATION ZONE EXTENDING
THROUGH IT ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE...AND IT IS THE CONTINUED STRONG SELY
FLOW FEEDING THIS LINE OF STORMS THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RAIN
TOTALS FROM TRAINING INTO LATER THIS MORNING.

.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3565 10021 3317 10016 3211 10362 3364 10391
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-