ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/06/08 2225Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2145Z    CW
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LOCATION...NW IOWA...EXT SE SOUTH DAKOTA...
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ATTN WFOS...DMX...FSD...OAX...
ATTN RFCS...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CURRENTLY A VERY STRONG CLUSTER OF TSTMS
ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS NW IA AND INTO N CENTRAL IA.  BECAUSE OF
THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS HVY RAINS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
BRIEF.  STLT ESTIMATES INDICATE AROUND 0.50-0.60" FELL IN THE LAST HOUR
(21-22Z) ACROSS SIOUX..PLYMOUTH..O BRIEN..AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN NW IA.
THE CONCERN IS FOR ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
AS CONVECTIVE CELLS (WITH COLDEST CLOUD-TOP TEMPS AROUND -64C) TO THE
SW OVER CENTEAL NE MOVE NEWD AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE OVER THESE
SAME COUNTIES MENTIONED EARLIER.  BASED OFF OF THE 22Z SFC ANALYSIS OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE..THESE CELLS OVER NE ARE TRAVELING ALONG THE AXIS
OF BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE..WHICH STRETCHES FROM SW NE INTO NE IA.
ADDITIONALLY..STLT WINDS INDICATE A MAXIMUM OF UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE
POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST NE/E IA AND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION TO HELP MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THESE CELLS AS THEY APPROACH THE
DISCUSSION AREA.  INDIVIDUAL CELLS MAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 0.50-1.0"/HR.  THE SPEED OF THE CELLS WILL BE CRITICAL
IN HOW MUCH RAINFALL FALLS OVER A GIVEN LOCATION..IF CELLS REMAIN AT
THEIR CURRENT SPEEDS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE AROUND 0.50-0.75"..HOWEVER
IF CELLS SLOW OR MERGE WITH EACH OTHER THIS VERY LIKELY COULD RESULT IN
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
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PLEASE SEE WEB ADDRESS BELOW FOR 1-HR STLT EST GRAPHIC IN 10 MINS.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4347 9471 4273 9533 4267 9718 4335 9712
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