ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/05/08 2300Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:2245Z  JS
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LOCATION...NW TO N CENT OKLAHOMA/SW TO S CENT KANSAS
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ATTN WFOS...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...WATCHING AREA OF SW TO S CENT KS AND EXTREME NW TO N CENT OK
FOR ANY POSSIBLE ORGANIZATION TO SUPERCELLS WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...AT THE PRESENT TIME THE AREA OF MOST
IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS AFFECTING THE AREA FROM
KEARNY COUNTY TO NEAR NESS/HODGEMAN COUNTIES OF W CENT KS. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER MOVING THAN THE CELLS OVER SW KS AND THE ISOLATED
CELL OVER WOODS COUNTY OF N CENT OK. BELIEVE THAT INTERACTIONS/MERGERS
BETWEEN CELLS WITHIN THIS SMALL COMPLEX COULD LEAD TO A BIT MORE PROLONGED
LOCALIZED RAINFALL EVENT DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SATELLITE BASED
ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AND ARE NOW
1.0-1.5"/HR BASED ON CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
(SFC DEWPOINTS MID 50S/GOES SOUNDER PW VALUES NEAR OR JUST OVER
1.0"). RATES COULD INCREASE EVEN MORE TO NEAR 2"/HR ESPECIALLY IF CELL
MERGERS OCCUR. DUE TO THE VERY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE
BORDER OF NESS/HODGEMAN EXPECT ESTIMATED TOTALS TO ALSO BE INCREASING TO
WELL OVER 1" IN JUST THE PAST HOUR WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF TOTALS SHORTLY
GOING OVER 2".
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ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION INDICATES ACTIVITY HAS BEEN INITIATED PARTLY
DUE TO WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SUBTROPICAL FLOW PER 12
HOUR WATER VAPOR LOOP ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPARENT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED SW FROM EARLIER COMPLEX OVER N CENT KS. CURRENT VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING OUTFLOW STILL DEPICTED THOUGH IN SLOW MOVING OR
NEARLY STATIONARY CU LINE STRETCHING FROM NW TO SE FROM SW KS TO N CENT
OK. OBJECTIVE SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ANALYSIS FAVORABLY HIGHLIGHTS THE
REGION FROM NE NM TO SW KS/NW OK. PLOT OF SFC BASED DEWPOINTS REVEALS AXIS
OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS ALIGNED FROM S CENT TX NORTHWARD TO W CENT KS WHILE
PROFILER NETWORK AND REGIONAL VWP DATA HAVE SHOWN A BIT OF AN INCREASE
(NOW 25-30KTS) IN S TO SSE LOW LEVEL JET FROM W CENT AND N CENT OK INTO
SW AND S CENT KS. THIS MAY CAUSE THE ACTIVITY IN KS TO GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME THERE IS
NOTHING FROM SATELLITE DATA WHICH POINTS TO A LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAIN
EVENT. HOWEVER, INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE LOCATION
OF THE ACTIVITY WHICH HAS ORIENTED ITSELF NEAR THE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW
AT THE TOP OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MAY ALLOW ORGANIZATION INTO
SOMEWHAT LARGER COMPLEX IN THE VICINITY OF SW TO S CENT KS/EXTREME NW
TO N CENT OK. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET AT THE ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINTUES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3885 10115 3867 9796 3657 9824 3674 10186
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