ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/01/08 1325Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1315Z    CW
.
LOCATION...NW NEBRASKA...W SOUTH DAKOTA...SW NORTH DAKOTA...E MONTANA...
LOCATION...NE WYOMING...
.
ATTN WFOS...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
.
EVENT...HVY SNOWFALL ALONG AXIS OF DEFORMATION ZONE
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT IR AND WV ANIMATIONS SHOW
STRETCHING OF THE CLOUD SHIELD AND MID-LVL MOISTURE PROFILE SUGGESTING A
DEFORMATION ZONE IS FORMING ALONG A SE-NW LINE FROM NORTHEAST NE/NE WY/W
SD/SE MT.  THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE STLT IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS
OF HVY PRECIPITATION..MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW..SHOULD BE WELL IN LINE
WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.  THE AXIS OF HVY PRECIP CONTINUES
TO ROTATE AND BACK ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE
VORT MAX LOCATED OVER NW CO AT THIS TIME.  THE VORT MAX IS SEEN SLOWLY
MOVING ENE..WITH THE SFC LOW INVOF CENTRAL SD PER 12Z SFC ANALYSIS.
AXIS OF BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS SSE-NNW ACROSS CENTRAL
SD/SW ND/NE MT.  EASTERLY LLVL WINDS ACROSS ND/SD/NW IA/MN ARE PROVIDING
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS A PW MOISTURE PLUME IS SEEN STRETCHING FROM
E TX/LA NORTHWARD INTO E IA/IL THEN ADVECTING ITS MOISTURE WESTWARD INTO
THE SYSTEM FROM THE GOES SOUNDER.

COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPS ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE ARE NEAR -56C AND
3-HR HYDROESTIMATOR INDICATES AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.9-1.0" HAVE FALLEN SINCE
13Z ACROSS CARTER/S FALLON COUNTIES IN SE MT AND HARDING/BUTTE/LAWRENCE
/SW MEADE COUNTIES NI NW SD.  THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OF VIS SHOW MORE
TEXTURED-LOOKING CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT NWD INTO SW SD WHICH MAY
PRODUCE SOME HVY BURSTS OF SNOW/RAIN WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS. EXPECTING DEFORMATION ZONE TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME
MORE WELL-DEFINED WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN PRECIPITATION
PREDOMINANTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH THE MOD/HVY SNOW BAND POSITIONING
ITSELF OVER AN AREA FROM W SD/EXTREME NE WY..WITH OROGRAPHICS PLAYING A
ROLE IN ENHANCING RATES ALONG THE BLACK HILLS..AND EXTENDING INTO SE MT.
DEFORMATION ZONE MAY BECOME MORE ESE-WNW BY LATE-AFTERNOON AS WITH THE
VORT MAX EXPECTED TO REACH NE CO/W NE BY THEN.
.
PLEASE SEE BELOW WEB ADDRESS FOR 3-HR STLT EST. AND GRAPHIC IN 15 MINS.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 4880 10474 4345 10186 4235 10493 4751 10819
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Message Graphic

-

Full Size Estimate Graphic

-