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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/01/08 0725Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-EAST:0715Z  JS
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LOCATION...W NEBRASKA/W SOUTH DAKOTA/SW NORTH DAKOTA/SE MONTANA...
LOCATION...E WYOMING
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ATTN WFOS...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
ATTN RFCS...MBRFC...
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EVENT...INITIAL SHOT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP NOW AFFECTING A PORTION
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MORE TO FOLLOW.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR LOOP THROUGH 0715Z SHOWS LARGE MASS
OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION FROM W NEB TO E MT WITH A FEW
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE CELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS W NEB/SW SD WHERE LIGHTNING
DETECTION NETWORK INDICATES THE MOST STRIKES. AXIS OF MOST ENHANCED CLOUD
TOPS HAS BEEN LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND IS ALIGNED FAIRLY WELL WITH
HIGHEST BASE REFLECTIVITIES ON COMPOSITE RADAR DATA STRETCHING ROUGHLY
FROM SCOTTSBLUFF IN W NEB TO NEAR CUSTER IN SW SW. METAR OBSERVATIONS
SHOW MUCH OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP AT THIS TIME TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN
WITH RATES RUNNING GENERALLY FROM .25"-.50"/HR WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR BRIEFLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATES WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. AUTOMATED
SATELLITE BASED ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE AMOUNTS RANGING
FROM .5" TO SLIGHTLY OVER 1" ACROSS APPROXIMATE AREA FROM SIOUX COUNTY
OF NW NEB TO CUSTER COUNTY OF SW SD WHICH SEEMS WITHIN REASON. OVERALL
PICTURE FROM WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS ACTIVITY FORMING IN FAVORABLE REGION
OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH UPPER LOW STILL HANGING BACK OVER SE ID/N UT
AND A SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL VORT CENTER OVER E UT. AS THESE FEATURES
MOVE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND ATTENDANT SFC AND 850MB CENTERS ALSO MOVE
A BIT MORE TO THE ENE INTO THE CENT PLAINS, THE PRIMARY PRECIP SHIELD
SHOULD IN EFFECT BEGIN TO PIVOT RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP FOR THE CENTER POINT. IT ALSO SHOULD ESTABLISH
A MORE EASTERLY LOWER LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WHICH WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS IN
W SD/SE MT/E WY/NW NEB. EVENTUALLY MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WITH LATEST HPC WWD HIGHLIGHTING THIS AREA IN ITS DAY1-DAY2
SNOW FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SITUATION FROM A SATELLITE
PERSPECTIVE SINCE THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE PIVOT POINT AND LOCATION
OF THE TROWAL WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHAT SPOTS RECEIVE THE
HEAVIEST SNOWS. AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE
INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10 MINUTES.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4810 10350 4155 10208 4135 10483 4780 10652
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