ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
HIZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/17/08 1940Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-11 1930Z SSMI THRU 1731Z GG
.
LOCATION...HAWAII...
.
ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
.
EVENT...HVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN O'AHU
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...RECENT 1731Z SSMI PASSES SHOW PWS STILL
IN THE 1.5-1.6" RANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS E-W
ORIENTED LINE SOUTH OF NI'IHAU AND KAUA'I TO WESTERN O'AHU WITH RAINRATES
OVER .8" WHICH IS PRETTY HIGH FOR SSMI VALUES.  CURRENT VIS/IR LOOP
SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL PATTERN OF THE E-W LINE HAD WEAKENED PARTICULARLY
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION BUT LOW LEVEL CU STREAMERS FROM THE SOUTH AND
SE SHOW VERY GOOD ORIENTATION TO THE LINE FOR REACTIVATION AND EVENTUAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LINE.  ALREADY CU TOWERS CAN BE SEEN JUST OFFSHORE
OF WESTER O'AHU MOST LIKELY ALONG THE SHORELINE CONVERGENCE BAND THAT CAN
ALSO BE SEEN PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN O'AHU SHORE TO MOLOKA'I...INCREASED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LINE FROM OUTFLOW FROM MESOHIGH 20.3N158.1W WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SHORELINE CONVERGENCE BAND AND
THE E-W ORIENTED BAND. WV LOOP SHOWS A FLATTING OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET
TO THE WEST OF THE ISLANDS BUT SHOW KAUA'I TO MAUI WITHIN VERY FAVORABLE
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE SOUTHERLY TROPICAL PLUME AND 110KT E-W SUBTROPICAL
JET ALONG 15N.  BUT DUE TO THE WEAK FLOW...CELL MOTION IS NEGLIGIBLE OR
VERY WEAK TO THE WEST...THIS SHOULD PUT CELLS OVER WESTERN O'AHU FOR AN
EXTENDED TIME AND POTENTIAL FF THREAT AS CELLS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
PLEASE SEE GRAPHIC AT WEB ADDRESS BELOW AND REFERENCE 1555Z SPENES FOR
FURTHER BACKGROUND ON SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 2160 15801 2063 15740 2020 16069 2148 16091
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-