ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 04/04/08 0337Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 0332Z GG
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LOCATION...ARKANSAS...EXT SE OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...
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EVENT...RAPID COOLING OF MCS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...WV LOOP SHOWS S/W SHEARING OUT ACROSS
LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH VERY STRONG JET OVER OHIO VALLEY.  THIS LEAVES THE
DISCUSSED AREA IN A VERY FAVORABLE REGION FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM
JET ENTRANCE DYNAMICS AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  SFC PRESSURES HAVE BEEN
FALLING WELL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AR ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH HAS LEAD
TO GOOD ISALLOBARIC INFLOW INTO THE FRONT IN A DEEP MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
WITH 60-65 TDS AND PWS OF 1.6-1.7" FOR GREAT SFC BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A LOADED LOW LEVEL PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION VERY QUICKLY...LEADING TO A FF THREAT ALONG THE
LINE FROM FULTON COUNTY AR TO MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK ATTM WITH A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SWWARD DEVELOPMENT.  IR TOPS HAVE COOLED ALONG THIS LINE VERY
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE LAST 30 TO 60 MINUTES IN SOME PLACES NEARING -80C
OVER YELL COUNTY AND EXT S POPE COUNTIES.   VERY QUICK BURSTS OF .25 TO
.5" IN 15-30MINUTES WOULD NOT BE ATYPICAL BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...THERE IS
STILL SOME E PROGRESSION...BUT THIS HAS BEEN CHANGING WITH THE INCREASED
BROAD AREA OF UVV AND SUBTLE AMPLIFICATION OF A WEAK WAVE SEEN ACROSS
NW AR/NE OK IN WV/IR...SO CONTINUED BACKBUILDING AND FILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AR INTO E AR WILL LEAD TO A VERY LARGE COMPLEX THAT WILL MOVE
NE WITH THE FLOW AND TRAIN MUCH MORE ACROSS NE AR INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF
MO BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  G-12 WILL BE OUT FOR ECLIPSE STARTING
AT 0415Z...SO WILL SHIFT TO G-11 FOR ADDITIONAL MONITORING.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3643 9299 3639 9141 3581 8990 3339 9266 3410 9520
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