ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/31/08 1558Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 1545Z    CW
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LOCATION...NW LOUISIANA...MISSOURI...ARKANSAS...E TEXAS...
LOCATION...OKLAHOMA...SE KANSAS...
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ATTN WFOS...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...HGX...TOP...ICT...
ATTN WFOS...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...ADDITIONAL HVY RAINS EXPECTED WITH TRAINING CELLS FROM NEXT
ROUND OF TSTMS THIS AFTN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...STLT IR SHOWS CLOUD TOP COOLING AND
EXPANSION ASSOCIATED WITH CLUSTER OF TSTMS APPROACHING EASTERN OK
COUNTIES OF OSAGE..WASHINGTON..NOWATA..TULSA..ROGERS..CRAIG..MAYES..
OTTAWA..DELAWARE. WHICH HAVE ALREADY SEEN 1-3" OF RAINFALL TODAY.
ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.0" OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THESE IMMEDIATE
CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
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THE BIG PICTURE..SHOWS A VERY MOISTURE ENRICHED ENVIRONMENT EXISTS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTH/CENTRAL US AS OVERNIGHT/MORNING TSTMS HAVE HELPED
TO SATURATE BOTH THE GROUND AND ATMOSPHERE.  FURTHERMORE.. LOW LVL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEX IS BEING FED NWD..AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS W/C TX THRU W OK AND INTO EASTERN
KS..BY A 40-50 KT SSW LLJ AT 850 MB PER STLT AND RAOB DATA AROUND 15Z.
VIS ANIMATION CLEARLY SHOWS THE NWD FLOW IN CU/TCU CLOUD STREET FORMATION
FROM TX/LA TO OK/AR.  CONVECTION IS ALREADY SEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY..WHERE THE BEST SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS..ACROSS C
OK AT THIS TIME WITH OBVIOUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS BEING OBSERVED IN A FEW
OF THESE CELLS IN THE VIS IMAGERY.
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LATEST GOES WV ANIMATION SHOWS A SW-NE ORIENTED SHORTWAVE MOVING NNE
ACROSS NE NM..SE CO..W OK..W KS WITH TRENDS SUGGESTING THE ORIENTATION
BECOMING MORE SSW-NNE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  FLOW AT MID-LVLS AHEAD
OF THIS WAVE IS SEEN TO BE SSW AND ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY ACROSS OK AND TX.  GOES SOUNDER LI VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING TO MORE UNSTABLE VALUES ACROSS C TX AND E/CENTRAL OK.
STLT DERIVED AND GPS PW VALUES ACROSS E TX HAVE NOW REACHED 1.2-1.6"
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE.
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AS NEW TSTMS DEVELOP ACROSS ACROSS E TX/AR/S MO..THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME
MORE WELL ORGANIZED..TRAINING OF CELLS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT
AS MID-LVL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND ALONG A SW-NE ORIENTED 850MB THETA-E AXIS FOR THAT AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1-3" AS THESE TSTMS TRAVEL
SLOWLY EWD THIS AFTERNOON.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3848 9531 3847 9111 3630 9155 3465 9241 3157 9451 3153
9831 3371 9813
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