ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
LAZ000-TXZ000-
.
SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/31/08 0242Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 0232Z		DS
.
LOCATION...SW LOUISIANA...SE TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...NEARLY STNRY/BACKBUILDING CELLS OVER CHAMBERS/JEFFERSON COUNTIES
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...CNVTN WHICH DVLPD OFF THE TX COAST HAS
FINALLY MADE ITS WAY ONSHORE BUT NOW ITS PROGRESS TO THE NE..PARTICULARLY
ON THE WRN END HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY. WRN END IT SITUATED OVER
CHAMBERS/JEFFERSON/S LIBERTY COUNTIES ATTM AND IS ACTING AS A PIVOT POINT
WHILE THE REST OF THE LINE OF CELLS ROTATES SLOWLY NWD INTO THE COAST OF
LA. VWP INVOF KHOU SHOWS 20-30 KTS SWRLY 850MB FLOW INTO THE WRN END OF
THE LINE EVEN THOUGH 850MB FLOW TO THE W AND N HAS STARTED TO VEER TO BE
MORE FROM THE SE..DIRECTING THE LOW LVL FLOW FARTHER NWD INTO CENTRAL OK.
.
00Z PW ANALYSIS DID INDICATE THAT 1.5" PW VALUES EXTENDED SWD FROM SHV
ALONG THE MOST NRN PART OF THE TX COAST AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MOD TO STRONG SFC MOISTURE CNVG OVER GALVESTON BAY. WHILE
COLDEST TOPS OF -60C HAVE TRANSLATED JUST OFFSHORE OF JEFFERSON
COUNTY..TAIL END WHICH IS ONLY AT -47C CONTINUES TO HANG BACK OVER
CHAMBERS/S LIBERTY COUNTIES AND IS A SIGNAL FOR REGENERATING/BACKBUILDING
CELLS. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNDERDONE DUE TO THE WARM TOP
NATURE OF CELLS AND ONLY SHOW 0.5-0.6" FOR THE PAST HR OVER S JEFFERSON
COUNTY. MANUALLY ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE AT 2.1" FOR CHAMBERS
COUNTY AND 1.75"-2" OVER S/CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY THROUGH 0215Z. IF
CELLS CONTINUE TO BE STNRY AND BACKBUILD..COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDTL
2-3" IN A 1-2 HR TIME PERIOD. ALSO WILL STILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS CNVTN IF IT PROGRESSES INLAND TO SEE HOW IT INTERACTS WITH THE
DYING COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL LA..THOUGH IT MAY BE DYING OUT TOO QUICKLY
TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE. THE HARD HIT FLOOD AREAS IN E TX/W CENTRAL LA FROM
TODAY WILL BE VERY VULNERABLE AS WELL IF ANY OF THIS CNVTN REACHES THOSE
COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. SEE WEB ADDRESS IN ABOUT 10 MIN FOR GRAPHIC.
.
SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
.
SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
.
LAT...LON 3115 9245 2917 9347 2967 9500 3103 9398
.
NNNN
 
Full Size Graphic


-