ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
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ILZ000-MOZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/27/08 0008Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2345Z    CW
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LOCATION...S ILLINOIS...E MISSOURI...
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ATTN WFOS...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
ATTN RFCS...OHRFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...MBRFC...
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EVENT...INCREASING THREAT OF HVY RAIN FROM TRAINING AS NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPS
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...THE LAST VIS IMAGES SEEN BEFORE DARKNESS
HIT SHOWED NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN CLUSTER
OF TSTMS..NOW IMPACTING S IL.  THESE NEW CELLS WERE SEEN OVER MUCH OF
EAST/CENTRAL MO AT 2315Z..WITH CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT OVERSHOOTING TOPS
WERE PRESENT.  LATEST IR AT 2345Z SHOWS THAT THESE CELLS ARE ALL HAVE
RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD-TOP TEMPS AND ARE ORIENTED W-E FROM BOONE THRU
TO WARREN COUNTIES AND ARE MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST TOWARDS ST. LOUIS
AND IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AREAS.  THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS FOR HVY
RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CELLS AS THEY PROGRESS EWD AND TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS..PARTICULARY AREAS E OF ST. LOUIS COUNTY IN SW IL WHERE
0.6" BASED ON STLT ESTIMATES HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE PAST 3-HRS..AREAS
INCLUDE ST. CLAIR..CLINTON..WASHINGTON COUNTIES.  CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE
THAT AN ADDITIONAL 0.5-1.0" OF RAINFALL COULD OCCUR OVER THE COUNTIES
FROM ST. LOUIS MO THRU WASHINGTON IL OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS.
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LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE..A PERSISTENT LLJ FROM THE SOUTH  CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING AS STLT ESTIMATES AND PROFILER DATA SHOW
WINDS NOW UP TO 30KTS OVER S MO.  PW VALUES OF 1.0-1.1 ARE MOVING INTO
S MO BASED ON RECENT GPS AND GOES STLT DATA WITH THIS STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LVL FLOW.  AT MID-LVLS TWO WAVES ARE SEEN IN WV ANIMATION..WITH ONE
OVER SW MO MOVING VERY QUICKLY NEWD AND THE SECOND FURTHER UPSTREAM OVER
NE UT/SW WY/NE CO.  THE FIRST WAVE OVER SW MO IS PROBABLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL LIFT AIDING IN THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER E MO/SW IL.
THE TREAT OF ADDITIONAL MOD/HVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS
EVENING FOR W MO AND S IL WITH THE APPROACHING SECOND WAVE..CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADVECTION..AND STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING OVER S MO.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3939 8887 3796 8861 3745 9167 3914 9226
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