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TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/10/08 1254Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1245Z		DS
LOCATION...CENTRAL TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MERGING CELLS IN S CENTRAL TX
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...S/WV ROTATING THROUGH TX ALONG WITH
MID/UPPER LVL VORT CROSSING FROM N TX INTO SW OK HAS STRECHED OUT PRECIP
AXIS RUNNING FROM SW TX TO NW LA. PRECIP HAS SO FAR BEEN PROGRESSIVE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY HVY RAIN AMOUNTS BUT NEW CNVTN HAS FORMED AHEAD
OF THE SRN END OF A SLOWLY E/SEWD MOVING FRNT THROUGH TX. THESE NEW
CELLS..CURRENTLY FROM MEDINA COUNTY TO TRAVIS/WILLIAMSON COUNTIES APPEAR
TO BE MOVING A LOT SLOWER THAN THE REST AND ALSO CONTAIN QUITE A BIT MORE
LIGHTNING STRIKES PER PLOT OF LATEST LIGHTNING DATA. WITH E/SEWD MOVEMENT
OF CELLS ALONG THE FRNT TWDS THESE ALMOST STNRY CELLS..MERGERS WILL
OCCUR..LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 30 MIN AND ENHANCE THE NEW CNVTN. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THETA-E AXIS NOSING UP INTO CENTRAL TX INVOF THE NEW CNVTN
AND NEWD FROM THERE TWDS NE TX. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS NOT EXCESSIVELY
HIGH..THOUGH WITH PW'S AT 0.96" PER GOES SOUNDER JUST E OF THE CNVTN AND
LIGHT ESERLY SFC FLOW OFF THE WRN GULF PULLING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE STORMS..BELIEVE RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIEST
RAIN OCCURRING WHERE CELL CORES MERGE TOGETHER. EVEN THOUGH CURRENT 3
HR FFG IS FAIRLY HIGH IN CENTRAL TX..SLOW NEWD MOVEMENT OF THE NEW CNVTN
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRNT ARRIVES TO PUSH THE RAINFALL ALONG. THIS
MAY CAUSE 1-3 HRS OF MOD/HVY RAINFALL OVER APPROX THE SAME COUNTIES THAT
COULD COME CLOSE TO REACHING FFG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3124 9734 3009 9714 2939 10001 3056 9991
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