ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/08/08 1457Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12: 1445Z		DS
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LOCATION...W NEW YORK...NW PENNSYLVANIA...OHIO...WEST VIRGINIA
LOCATION...N KENTUCKY...
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ATTN WFOS...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...
ATTN WFOS...LMK...
ATTN RFCS...NERFC...MARFC...OHRFC...
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EVENT...HVY SNOW MOVING FROM OH/N KY INTO EXTREME NW PA/W NY
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...MID/UPPER VORT IS SEEN ON WV LIFTING
OUT OF N CENTRAL KY INTO SW OH ATTM. GOES STLT WINDS INDICATE HIGHLY DVG
UPPER LVL FLOW ACROSS N WV/ERN OH/W PA/NY THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO RAPID
FORMATION OF A BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER THE PAST 2 HRS..NOW OVER LKS ERIE
AND ONTARIO. WITH WARM AIR BEING ADVECTED NWD AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER LVL
VORT..MUCH OF THE PRECIP OCCURRING OVER W AND N CENTRAL PA/S CENTRAL NY
HAS CHANGED OVER TO A SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIX.
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HOWEVER..N AND W OF THIS MIXED PRECIP ARE TWO AREAS OF HVY SNOW. ONE IS
WITH THE BAROCLINIC LEAF ACROSS THE LK ERIE/ONTARIO REGION WHERE ENOUGH
COLD AIR IS IN PLACE TO STAY ALL SNOW. THE OTHER IS IN OH ASSCD WITH
THE MOISTURE BEING PULLED UP BY THE MID/UPPER LVL VORT AND IS STARTING
TO AFFECT FAR WRN PA/WRN WV AS WELL. COLD AIR FILTERING IN WITH THIS HVY
PRECIP TO THE W OF THE STRONG WAA ALONG WITH THE STRONG FORCING FROM THE
VORT HAS ALLOWED FOR HVY SNOW TO FALL AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NEWD
TWDS SW NY. SAB DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ALGORITHM CONFIRMS THINKING WITH
-15C PRESSURE LVL COLOCATED WITH MOD TO STRONG UVV PER RUC FCST MODEL
OVER CENTRAL/E OH AND NW PA INTO W NY..PARTICULARLY OVER THE LKS. VIS
IMAGERY SHOWS SOME POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE CELLS ASSCD WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE HVY SNOW MOVING FROM E OH INTO PA/E LK ERIE REGION...LIGHTNING
DATA DID INDICATE AT LEAST ONE STRIKE IN E OH IN THE PAST 10 MIN. STLT
ESTIMATES GIVE SNOWFALL RATES OF 2.5-3.5"/HR ASSCD WITH THE WARM TOP
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVE CELLS MOVING FROM E OH INTO NW PA. FARTHER TO THE
E WHERE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS PRESENT SNOWFALL RATES ARE MORE LIKELY ON
THE 1-2"/HR SCALE BACK TO EXTREME N KY WITH THE VORT. BAND OF HVY SNOW
SHOULD MOVE NEWD INTO NW PA/SW NY AND EVENTUALLY INTO CENTRAL NY. SEE
WEB ADDRESS FOR GRAPHIC IN ABOUT 10-15 MIN.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 4457 7727 4351 7412 3792 8344 3794 8543 4274 8076
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