ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/06/08 2236Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-12 2215Z   CW
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LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...MOD/HVY RAIN/SNOW
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD
FROM C TX INTO E TX/SE OK/SW AR/E LA AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOW
WITH INCREASED BACKING OF FLOW AND CONTINUED ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE
(PW VALUES OVER 1.0" ALONG TX COASTLINE).  STLT DERIVED WINDS AT 850MB AND
SFC SHOW WINDS OVER E TX OUT OF THE ESE..PROVIDING AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS POINTS N AND W OF E TX SHOW STRONG FLOW FROM THE NW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLOW IN ITS EWD PROGRESSION AND
MAY CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS.  AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION REGION SHOULD SEE INCREASING RAINFALL RATES
WITH EXPANSION OF MOD/HVY RAINS INTO THE AREA..WHILE NORTHERN PORTIONS
ARE GOING TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.
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FOR SE TX..MOD/HVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
CONVECTION INVOF KPKV/KPSX/KARM PER 2145Z G12 IR IMAGERY.  COLDEST CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS AREA OF CONVECTION ARE RELATIVELY WARM..NEAR
-55C..HOWEVER THESE CELLS HAVE A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 2.0" IN AN HR (1.95"
KVCT 20-21Z).  LATEST STLT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION
IS STRENGTHENING AS IT PROGRESSES EWD..INDICATING THAT MOD/HVY RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2"/HR CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG ITS PATH.
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FOR SE OK/NE TX/SW AR..FOR AREAS STILL EXPERIENCING RAIN..MOD/HVY RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS PERSISTENT NW WINDS WILL DRIVE IN
BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR POINTS NW OF A LINE EXTENDED FROM KACT THRU KTKX.
SNOWFALL RATES REACH UP TO 1.0-2.0" WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND PW VALUES NEAR 1.0".
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
...ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT...LON 3483 9651 3369 9346 2946 9392 2810 9661 3203 9751
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